Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Champions League, Europe
Merkur Arena Tue, 11 Aug - 6:30 PM
Champions League
Sturm GrazSTU
FenerbahçeFEN
KICKOFF : Tue, 11 Aug - 6:30 PM
3rd Qualifying Round Leg 2 of 2

CONTEXT

Sturm Graz welcome Fenerbahce to the Merkur Arena for the second leg of their Champions League third qualifying round tie in the 2026/2027 season. The visitors hold a clear power advantage of 11.7 points with an overall score of 87.21 compared to the hosts 75.52. Fenerbahce are the stronger side on paper and will look to protect any advantage from the first leg. Sturm Graz have posted a superior recent form score of 38.89 while Fenerbahce sit at 27.78. Both teams operate without domestic league positions listed for this international cup fixture. The match represents a key European night for Sturm Graz at their home venue as they aim to overcome the quality gap. Fenerbahce bring greater overall strength into the contest.

TL;DR

  • Structural: This is the second leg of a two-legged Champions League third qualifying round tie at Merkur Arena.
  • Form: Sturm Graz hold a higher form score of 38.89 compared to Fenerbahce at 27.78.
  • Squad: Fenerbahce are the stronger team with a power score of 87.21 against Sturm Graz 75.52.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data remains unavailable for both sides in this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition metrics are not provided in the available match data.
  • Set pieces: Set piece analysis shows low confidence levels with proxy data used for both teams.
  • xVariable: Fenerbahce carry an 11.7 point power advantage into the second leg.
  • Market: Sturm Graz 25.4% (Δ+0%) | Draw 24.5% (Δ+0%) | Fenerbahçe 50.2% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Sturm Graz F. Ingolitsch
F. Ingolitsch
VS
Fenerbahçe İ. Kartal
İ. Kartal
2.33
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.67
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Fenerbahçe Rank: 87 D
Hearts Rank: 75 W
Hearts Rank: 76 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sturm Graz Rank: 76 D
Górnik Zabrze Rank: 70 D
Górnik Zabrze Rank: 69 W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 1
1
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sturm Graz
25.36%
Draw
24.46%
Away Fenerbahçe
50.18%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
75.52
87.21
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sturm Graz
Fenerbahçe
Power Score
75.52
87.21
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
159
33

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sturm Graz — Opponent-weighted form score
Fenerbahçe — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sturm Graz Fenerbahçe

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sturm Graz STU Home
2 matches
Fenerbahçe FEN Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
1
Draws
1
1
Losses
0
Goals
2
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
2
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-08-04T00:59:37+00:00

General Information

Date & Time
Aug 11, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Champions League, Europe · 3rd Qualifying Round · Leg 2 of 2
Stadium
Merkur Arena
Capacity
16764
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Alejandro José Hernández Hernández
José Enrique Naranjo Pérez
Marcos Cerdán Aguilar
Alejandro Quintero González

Squad

Referee : Alejandro José Hernández Hernández

Squad ▼

22
Ammar Helac
Ammar Helac Goalkeeper
53
Daniil Khudyakov
Daniil Khudyakov Goalkeeper
41
Elias Lorenz
Elias Lorenz Goalkeeper
5
Albert Vallci
Albert Vallci Defender
35
Niklas Geyrhofer
Niklas Geyrhofer Defender
30
Paul-Friedrich Koller
Paul-Friedrich Koller Defender
2
Jeyland Mitchell
Jeyland Mitchell Defender
23
Arjan Malic
Arjan Malic Defender
18
Emran Gamal Marwan Soglo
Emran Gamal Marwan Soglo Defender
21
Petar Petrović
Petar Petrović Defender
4
Jon Gorenc Stankovič
Jon Gorenc Stankovič Midfielder
10
Otar Kiteishvili
Otar Kiteishvili Midfielder
28
Jürgen Heil
Jürgen Heil Midfielder
80
Ryan Fosso
Ryan Fosso Midfielder
15
Gizo Mamageishvili
Gizo Mamageishvili Midfielder
19
Simon Seidl
Simon Seidl Midfielder
43
Jacob Peter Hödl
Jacob Peter Hödl Midfielder
8
Filip Jan Rózga
Filip Jan Rózga Midfielder
39
Luca Weinhandl
Luca Weinhandl Midfielder
77
Maurice Malone
Maurice Malone Attacker
20
Seedy Jatta
Seedy Jatta Attacker
17
Szymon Włodarczyk
Szymon Włodarczyk Attacker
26
Belmin Beganovic
Belmin Beganovic Attacker
32
Peter Kiedl
Peter Kiedl Attacker
44
Nelson Felix Patrick Weiper
Nelson Felix Patrick Weiper Attacker
9
Leon Grgic
Leon Grgic Attacker
11
Axel Kayombo
Axel Kayombo Attacker
36
Amady Camara
Amady Camara Attacker
Referee : Alejandro José Hernández Hernández

Squad ▼

—
Dominik Livaković
Dominik Livaković Goalkeeper
31
Ederson Santana de Moraes
Ederson Santana de Moraes Goalkeeper
34
Fehmi Mert Günok
Fehmi Mert Günok Goalkeeper
1
İrfan Can Eğribayat
İrfan Can Eğribayat Goalkeeper
13
Tarık Çetin
Tarık Çetin Goalkeeper
39
Engin Biterge
Engin Biterge Goalkeeper
15
Nathan Aké
Nathan Aké Defender
4
Caglar Söyüncü
Caglar Söyüncü Defender
—
Diego Carlos Santos Silva
Diego Carlos Santos Silva Defender
37
Milan Škriniar
Milan Škriniar Defender
27
Nélson Cabral Semedo
Nélson Cabral Semedo Defender
50
Rodrigo Nascimiento Franca
Rodrigo Nascimiento Franca Defender
18
Mert Müldür
Mert Müldür Defender
22
Münir Mercan
Münir Mercan Defender
3
Archie Brown
Archie Brown Defender
24
Jayden Oosterwolde
Jayden Oosterwolde Defender
14
Yiğit Efe Demir
Yiğit Efe Demir Defender
77
Ognjen Mimović
Ognjen Mimović Defender
60
Omar Fayed
Omar Fayed Defender
—
N'Golo Kanté
N'Golo Kanté Midfielder
—
Sofyan Amrabat
Sofyan Amrabat Midfielder
6
Mattéo Guendouzi Olié
Mattéo Guendouzi Olié Midfielder
94
Anderson Souza Conceição
Anderson Souza Conceição Midfielder
10
Marco Asensio Willemsen
Marco Asensio Willemsen Midfielder
7
Frederico Rodrigues Santos
Frederico Rodrigues Santos Midfielder
8
Mert Hakan Yandaş
Mert Hakan Yandaş Midfielder
5
İsmail Yüksek
İsmail Yüksek Midfielder
25
Emre Demir
Emre Demir Midfielder
28
Bartuğ Elmaz
Bartuğ Elmaz Midfielder
—
Abdou Aziz Fall
Abdou Aziz Fall Midfielder
19
Vedat Muriqi
Vedat Muriqi Attacker
17
İrfan Can Kahveci
İrfan Can Kahveci Attacker
23
Cengiz Ünder
Cengiz Ünder Attacker
9
Muhammed Kerem Aktürkoğlu
Muhammed Kerem Aktürkoğlu Attacker
70
Oğuz Aydın
Oğuz Aydın Attacker
11
Mason Greenwood
Mason Greenwood Attacker
20
Anthony Musaba
Anthony Musaba Attacker
45
Nene Dorgeles
Nene Dorgeles Attacker
95
Çağrı Fedai
Çağrı Fedai Attacker
—
Amara Diouf
Amara Diouf Attacker
26
Sidiki Cherif
Sidiki Cherif Attacker
35
Adem Yeşilyurt
Adem Yeşilyurt Attacker

CONCLUSION

Fenerbahce enter the return fixture as the stronger side and will seek to manage the tie effectively at Merkur Arena. Sturm Graz benefit from home support and a better recent form reading yet face a notable quality deficit. The absence of detailed efficiency and set piece metrics leaves the focus on overall power and squad strength. Both sides must adapt quickly in this European encounter where small margins often decide progression. Fenerbahce hold the edge on paper and will aim to convert that into a positive result. Sturm Graz need a strong collective display to bridge the gap and advance.