Paide vs SK Rapid preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Sportland Arena
Europa Conference League
PaidePAI
1 4
SK RapidSCR
Full Time
3rd Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
Daniel Luts - 41'
Goal
|
Goal
Bendegúz Bolla - 5' (P)
Moulaye Haïdara - 83', 90+4'

CONTEXT

Paide hosted SK Rapid in leg one of a two-legged knockout tie and suffered a 1-4 defeat after a 1-1 interval. SK Rapid controlled 75 percent of possession while Paide were restricted to 25 percent. Expected goals stood at 1.37 for the home side and 2.83 for the visitors. The outcome remained consistent with those figures and produced only minimal deviation from pre-match indicators at 2.7 percent. No red cards were shown by the referee. SK Rapid converted their territorial advantage into three second-half goals to complete the scoring. The result leaves the aggregate finely balanced ahead of the return fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Paide recorded 25 percent possession against SK Rapid's 75 percent.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with underlying performance metrics.
  • xG alignment: Final score of 1-4 aligned with home xG of 1.37 and away xG of 2.83.
  • Market alignment: Result showed true alignment with pre-match indicators at 2.7 percent deviation.
  • xG expectations: SK Rapid met xG expectations by scoring four goals from 2.83 expected.
  • Event impact: No major events disrupted the match flow beyond standard play.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards were issued so no distortion affected team dynamics.
  • Market: Paide 6.5% (Δ+5.7%) | Draw 15.3% (Δ+13.4%) | SK Rapid 78.2% (Δ-19.2%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Nikolić
D. Nikolić
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
M. Šutulović
M. Šutulović
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
S. Živin
S. Živin
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
N. Radaković
N. Radaković
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Paide T. Kink
T. Kink
VS
SK Rapid J. Hoff Thorup
J. Hoff Thorup
2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
3
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Zira Rank: D
Zira Rank: W
Hegelmann Litauen Rank: W
Hegelmann Litauen Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Santa Coloma Rank: W
FC Santa Coloma Rank: W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Paide
6.5%
Draw
15.33%
Away SK Rapid
78.17%

Movement

Changes since opening
Paide
+5.73%
Draw
+13.42%
SK Rapid
-19.15%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
36.67
25.91
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Paide
SK Rapid
Power Score
36.67
25.91
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Paide — Opponent-weighted form score
SK Rapid — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Paide SK Rapid

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Paide

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

SK Rapid

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Paide
vs
SK Rapid
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Paide SK Rapid
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
81%
30%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-1.11 vs +0.15
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Paide SK Rapid
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
30%
81%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
+0.15 vs -1.11
Paide
SK Rapid
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Paide
vs
SK Rapid
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Paide SK Rapid
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Paide 0.00
SK Rapid 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Paide SK Rapid
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Paide 0.00
SK Rapid 0.00
Paide
SK Rapid
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SCR had peak pressure around 81'.
  • SCR started the game with stronger pressure.
PAI Pressure SCR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SCR reached the top pressure at 81' (80.04).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-1-3-2
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 3rd Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Sportland Arena
Capacity
14336
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Danilo Nikolić
Milan Šutulović
Svetozar Živin
Nikola Radaković

Statistics

Possession
PAI
32%
SCR
68%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 4
2 Big Chances Created 7
3 Shots 9
42 Dangerous attacks 106
26 Possession 74
4 Corners 5
12 Free kicks 12
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

67 Ball Safe 65
0 Penalties 1
11 Goal Kicks 3
5 Goal Attempts 15
4 Substitutions 5
12 Throwins 22
1 Hit Woodwork 0
0 Assists 2
17 Dribble Attempts 16
8 Successful Dribbles 8
47 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50

Attacking

67 Attacks 125
1 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

46 Long Passes 36
255 Passes 743
200 Successful Passes 686
78 Successful Passes Percentage 92
6 Key Passes 16
23 Successful Long Passes 18
50 Successful Long Passes Percentage 50

Defensive

4 Saves 1
15 Tackles 14
15 Interceptions 6

Build-up

7 Total Crosses 29
3 Accurate Crosses 7

Discipline

0 Offsides 1
13 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Danilo Nikolić

Starting XI ▼

99
Ebrima Jarju
Ebrima Jarju Goalkeeper
6.31
2
Michael Lilander
Michael Lilander Defender
6.41
3
Victor Hugo
Victor Hugo Defender
6.38
7
Edgar Tur
Edgar Tur Defender
6.38
27
Nikita Baranov
Nikita Baranov Defender
6.38
4
Pedro Andrade
Pedro Andrade
Defender80'
6.5
6
Daniel Cabral
Daniel Cabral Midfielder
6.47
8
Henrik Ojamaa
Henrik Ojamaa
Midfielder58'
6.56
10
Martin Miller
Martin Miller Midfielder
6.44
11
Pa Modou Sohna
Pa Modou Sohna Midfielder
6.58
28
Oskar Hoim
Oskar Hoim (C) Midfielder
6.42
77
Daniel Luts
Daniel Luts Midfielder
6.45
14
Momodou Jobarteh
Momodou Jobarteh
Midfielder80'
30
Abdourahman Badamosi
Abdourahman Badamosi Attacker
6.57
9
Henri Anier
Henri Anier
Attacker66'
6.65
Referee : Danilo Nikolić

Starting XI ▼

1
Niklas Hedl
Niklas Hedl Goalkeeper
6.36
6
Serge-Philippe Raux-Yao
Serge-Philippe Raux-Yao Defender
6.88
23
Jonas Auer
Jonas Auer Defender
6.72
55
Nenad Cvetkovic
Nenad Cvetkovic Defender
6.8
77
Bendegúz Bolla
Bendegúz Bolla Defender
7.86
2
Eaden Roka
Eaden Roka
Defender87'
6.43
7
Marco Tilio
Marco Tilio Midfielder
7.31
10
Petter Nosa Dahl
Petter Nosa Dahl
Attacker59'
7.11
15
Nikolaus Wurmbrand
Nikolaus Wurmbrand Midfielder
6.73
43
Moulaye Haïdara
Moulaye Haïdara
Attacker69'
2
6.78
18
Matthias Seidl
Matthias Seidl (C) Midfielder
7.73
21
Louis Schaub
Louis Schaub Midfielder
6.37
30
Nicolas Bajlicz
Nicolas Bajlicz
Midfielder69'
7.01
8
Tonni Adamsen
Tonni Adamsen Attacker
6.91
17
Tobias Gulliksen
Tobias Gulliksen Attacker
6.31
22
Yusuf Demir
Yusuf Demir
Attacker69'
7.92

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Moulaye Haïdara
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
87'
Event
Eaden Roka → Bendegúz Bolla
9th Substitution
85'
Event
Petter Nosa Dahl
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
83'
Event
Moulaye Haïdara
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Pedro Andrade → Nikita Baranov
7th Substitution
80'
Event
Momodou Jobarteh → Daniel Luts
8th Substitution
80'
69'
Event
Nicolas Bajlicz → Louis Schaub
4th Substitution
69'
Event
Yusuf Demir → Tobias Gulliksen
5th Substitution
69'
Event
Moulaye Haïdara → Nikolaus Wurmbrand
6th Substitution
Event
Henri Anier → Abdourahman Badamosi
3rd Substitution
66'
59'
Event
Petter Nosa Dahl → Marco Tilio
2nd Substitution
Event
Henrik Ojamaa  → Daniel Cabral
1st Substitution
58'
57'
Event
Bendegúz Bolla
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Oskar Hoim
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
55'
1ST-HALF
Event
Daniel Luts
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
41'
5'
Event
Bendegúz Bolla
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
3'
Event
Nikolaus Wurmbrand
Penalty awarded

Match Commentary

90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot! Moulaye Haidara scores with a right-footed shot.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Moulaye Haidara scores with a right-footed shot.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Moulaye Haidara scores, making it 1-4.
90
Update Update
Match ends with a score of 1-4.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Jannes Horn scores, making it 1-4.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
88
Attempt Attempt
Yusuf Demir attempted a left-footed shot but missed.
87
Update Update
Eaden Roka is on, and Bendeguz Bolla is off.
85
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot by Petter Nosa Dahl with his left foot results in a goal.
85
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Petter Nosa scores, making it 1-3.
83
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Moulaye Haidara scores with a right-footed shot.
83
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Moulaye Haidara scores, making it 1-2.
82
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Moulaye Haidara scores, making it 1-2.
82
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
80
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
80
Update Update
Momodou Jobarteh comes on for Daniel Luts.
79
Substitution Substitution
Pedro Andrade Drozina is substituted for Nikita Baranov.
79
Substitution Substitution
Pedro Andrade Drozina is substituted for Nikita Baranov.
76
Attempt Attempt
Tonni Adamsen takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
74
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
73
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
72
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
72
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
71
Attempt Attempt
Yusuf Demir takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
69
Update Update
Nicolas Bajlicz comes on for Louis Schaub.
69
Update Update
Yusuf Demir comes on for Tobias Fjeld Gulliksen.
69
Substitution Substitution
Moulaye Haidara is substituted for Nikolaus Wurmbrand.
68
Attempt Attempt
Matthias Seidl takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
66
Update Update
Henri Anier comes on for Abdouraham Badamosi.
62
Attempt Attempt
Tobias Fjeld Gulliksen takes a left-footed shot but misses.
62
Attempt Attempt
Nenad Cvetkovic attempts a header but misses the shot.
61
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
59
Update Update
Petter Nosa Dahl comes on for Marco Tilio.
58
Update Update
Hindrek Ojamaa comes on for Gustavo Daniel Cabral.
57
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Bendeguz Bolla.
57
Attempt Attempt
Nikolaus Wurmbrand takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
55
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Oskar Hoim.
53
Attempt Attempt
Marco Tilio takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
51
Attempt Attempt
Louis Schaub's left-footed shot is saved.
49
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
43
Attempt Attempt
Abdouraham Badamosi takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
41
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Daniel Luts takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
41
Attempt Attempt
Abdouraham Badamosi takes a shot with his head, but it is blocked.
41
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Daniel Luts scores, making it 1-1.
40
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Daniel Luts scores, making it 1-1.
38
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
36
Attempt Attempt
Marco Tilio takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
34
Attempt Attempt
Marco Tilio takes a right-footed shot, but it misses the target.
25
Attempt Attempt
Gustavo Daniel Cabral takes a right-footed shot but misses.
25
Attempt Attempt
Oskar Hoim takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
23
Attempt Attempt
Tobias Fjeld Gulliksen takes a right-footed shot but misses.
22
Attempt Attempt
Tonni Adamsen takes a left-footed shot but misses.
18
Attempt Attempt
Gustavo Daniel Cabral takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
5
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Bendeguz Bolla takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
5
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Bendeguz Bolla scores, making it 0-1.
3
Update Update
VAR decision results in a penalty awarded to Nikolaus Wurmbrand.
2
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Danilo Nikolic.

CONCLUSION

The 1-4 result reflected SK Rapid's superior chance creation and second-half finishing after both teams shared the halftime score of 1-1. Paide's low possession share limited their opportunities while the visitors maintained control and added three goals after the break. Expected goals correctly anticipated the winner and the margin stayed within the minimal deviation range recorded before kickoff. Absence of dismissals allowed both sides to complete the match with full squads. The data indicates the outcome followed expected patterns without external influences altering the structural balance. SK Rapid now carry a three-goal advantage into the second leg.