Rijeka vs Ilves preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Stadion HNK Rijeka Today - 6:45 PM
Europa Conference League
Rijeka RIJ
1 0
Ilves ILV
Full Time Today 6:45 PM
3rd Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Rijeka hosted Ilves in the first leg of their knockout tie and claimed a 1-0 victory. The home side opened the scoring before halftime and protected the lead throughout the second period. Possession statistics showed Rijeka at 66 percent against Ilves at 34 percent. Although Ilves entered as the stronger team on paper, Rijeka executed the necessary defensive structure to secure the narrow win. No red cards were issued to players from either side. The single goal proved sufficient to give Rijeka the advantage heading into the return fixture. This result leaves the aggregate position open for the second leg.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Rijeka 1-0 Ilves. Rijeka showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with observed performance levels.
  • xG alignment: No expected goals data was available to evaluate outcome alignment.
  • Market alignment: The match result stayed consistent with pre-match indicators.
  • xG expectations: Expected goals metrics could not be assessed due to absent data.
  • Event impact: The first-half goal decided the outcome in a low-scoring contest.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred to alter the flow of the match.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
I. Barbara
I. Barbara
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
L. Portelli
L. Portelli
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
J. Muscat
J. Muscat
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
S. Petrović
S. Petrović
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Rijeka M. Kek
M. Kek
VS
Ilves Camilo Speranza Borde
Camilo Speranza Borde
2.17
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.75
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Derry City Rank: W
Derry City Rank: W
Strasbourg Rank: 81 D
Strasbourg Rank: 81 L
Omonia Nicosia Rank: W
Omonia Nicosia Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.75 i
Last 6 Opponents
Stjarnan Rank: W
Stjarnan Rank: L
Differdange 03 Rank: W
Differdange 03 Rank: D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Rijeka
73.34%
Draw
19%
Away Ilves
7.67%

Movement

Changes since opening
Rijeka
-23.18%
Draw
+16.16%
Ilves
+7.03%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
30.69
33.33
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Rijeka
Ilves
Power Score
30.69
33.33
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Rijeka — Opponent-weighted form score
Ilves — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Rijeka Ilves

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Rijeka

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Ilves

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Rijeka ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Ilves
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Rijeka Ilves
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Rijeka Ilves
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Rijeka
Ilves
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Rijeka
vs
Ilves
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Rijeka Ilves
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Rijeka 0.00
Ilves 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Rijeka Ilves
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Rijeka 0.00
Ilves 0.00
Rijeka
Ilves
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • RIJ had peak pressure around 86'.
  • RIJ started the game with stronger pressure.
RIJ Pressure ILV Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: RIJ reached the top pressure at 86' (50.83).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
F. Krkalic
Bosnia and Herzegovina
12 F. Krkalic
M. Rale
Finland
3 M. Rale
S. Väisänen
Substitution
Finland
5 (C) S. Väisänen
V. Kumpu
24 V. Kumpu
B. Goudouss
19 B. Goudouss
L. Ala-Myllymäki
Substitution
Finland
15 L. Ala-Myllymäki
A. Popovits
Substitution
Finland
14 A. Popovits
J. Kilo
Finland
28 J. Kilo
K. Wallius
Finland
13 K. Wallius
T. Hytönen
Substitution
Finland
9 T. Hytönen
J. Kanga
Substitution
Sweden
30 J. Kanga

General Information

Date & Time
Aug 06, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 3rd Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Stadion HNK Rijeka
Capacity
8279
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Ishmael Barbara
Luke Portelli
James Muscat
Slobodan Petrović

Statistics

Possession
RIJ
73%
ILV
27%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
5 Shots 1
133 Dangerous attacks 25
66 Possession 34
9 Corners 1
9 Free kicks 10
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5
23 Throwins 15

Attacking

173 Attacks 66

Discipline

2 Offsides 0
9 Fouls 10

Lineup

Referee : Ishmael Barbara

Starting XI ▼

99
Aleksa Todorovic
Aleksa Todorovic Goalkeeper
6.5
22
Ante Orec
Ante Orec Defender
6.5
34
Mladen Devetak
Mladen Devetak Defender
6.5
11
Gabriel Rukavina
Gabriel Rukavina
Midfielder83'
6.5
45
Ante Majstorovic
Ante Majstorovic (C) Defender
6.5
4
Niko Jankovic
Niko Jankovic Midfielder
6.5
5
Alfonso Barco
Alfonso Barco Midfielder
6.5
6
Branko Pavic
Branko Pavic Midfielder
6.5
10
Toni Fruk
Toni Fruk Midfielder
6.6
19
Samuele Vignato
Samuele Vignato
Midfielder46'
14
Amer Gojak
Amer Gojak Midfielder
8
Ivan Cubelic
Ivan Cubelic
Midfielder90'
26
Tiago Dantas
Tiago Dantas Midfielder
6.5
23
Justas Lasickas
Justas Lasickas
Defender71'
18
Daniel Adu-Adjei
Daniel Adu-Adjei Attacker
6.66
21
Jakov Puljic
Jakov Puljic
Attacker71'
Referee : Ishmael Barbara

Starting XI ▼

12
Faris Krkalic
Faris Krkalic Goalkeeper
6.18
3
Matias Rale
Matias Rale Defender
6.35
5
Sauli Väisänen
Sauli Väisänen (C) Defender
6.44
16
Tatu Miettunen
Tatu Miettunen
Defender72'
6.37
19
Bamba Abdoul Goudouss
Bamba Abdoul Goudouss Defender
24
Ville Kumpu
Ville Kumpu Defender
13
Kalle Wallius
Kalle Wallius Midfielder
6.44
14
Anton Popovitch
Anton Popovitch Midfielder
6.38
—
Anton Popovitch
72'
15
Lauri Ala-Myllymäki
Lauri Ala-Myllymäki Midfielder
22
Oskari Multala
Oskari Multala
Midfielder59'
6.44
28
Jesse Kilo
Jesse Kilo Midfielder
6.54
30
Jardell Kanga
Jardell Kanga Midfielder
6.58
45
Elias Tamminen
Elias Tamminen
Attacker83'
9
Teemu Hytönen
Teemu Hytönen Attacker
6.48
10
Roope Riski
Roope Riski
Attacker59'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Bamba Abdoul Goudouss
5th Yellowcard
Event
Ivan Cubelic → Amer Gojak
10th Substitution
90'
Event
Gabriel Rukavina → Mladen Devetak
8th Substitution
83'
83'
Event
Elias Tamminen → Jardell Kanga
9th Substitution
75'
Event
Jardell Kanga
4th Yellowcard
72'
Event
Tatu Miettunen → Sauli Väisänen
6th Substitution
72'
Event
Yacouba Sacko → Anton Popovitch
7th Substitution
Event
Justas Lasickas → Tiago Dantas
4th Substitution
71'
Event
Jakov Puljic → Daniel Adu-Adjei
5th Substitution
71'
59'
Event
Oskari Multala → Lauri Ala-Myllymäki
2nd Substitution
59'
Event
Roope Riski → Teemu Hytönen
3rd Substitution
Event
Alfonso Barco
3rd Yellowcard
50'
Event
Samuele Vignato → Toni Fruk
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
27'
Event
Jesse Kilo
2nd Yellowcard
Event
Niko Jankovic
Field Goal / 1st Goal
16'
Event
Branko Pavic
1st Yellowcard
11'

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Goudouss Bamba.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Ivan Cubelic comes on for Amer Gojak.
83
Update Update
Elias Tamminen comes on for Jardell Kanga.
83
Update Update
Gabrijel Rukavina is on, and Mladen Devetak is off.
82
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
75
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card.
74
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
72
Update Update
Yacouba Sacko is on, and Anton Popovitch is off.
72
Update Update
On Tatu Miettunen, off Sauli Vaisanen.
71
Update Update
Justas Lasickas is on, and Tiago Dantas is off.
71
Update Update
Jakov Puljic replaces Daniel Adu Adjei.
64
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
59
Update Update
Oskari Multala replaces Lauri Ala Myllymaki.
59
Update Update
Roope Riski comes on for Teemu Hytoenen.
59
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
54
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
50
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
46
Update Update
Samuele Vignato comes on for Toni Fruk.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
36
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
32
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
27
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jesse Kilo receives a yellow card.
16
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Niko Jankovic scores to make it 1-0.
14
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
11
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
6
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Ishmael Barbara.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Rijeka 1-0 Ilves. Structural assessment: Rijeka exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.