KuPS vs Universitatea Craiova preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa League, Europe
Savon Sanomat Areena Thu, 6 Aug - 3:00 PM
Europa League
KuPSKUPS
1 – 1
Universitatea CraiovaUCR
Full Time Thu, 6 Aug 3:00 PM
3rd Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
Jaime Moreno - 72'
Goal
|
Goal

CONTEXT

The match between KuPS and Universitatea Craiova ended in a 1-1 draw during the first leg of their knockout tie. KuPS, playing at home, managed to equalize after trailing 0-1 at halftime. Possession statistics showed KuPS with 54 percent and Universitatea Craiova with 46 percent. Neither team received any red cards during the contest. Universitatea Craiova entered as the stronger side but settled for a point away from home. A moderate deviation of 8.8 percent was noted in relation to Universitatea Craiova. The efficiency shift stayed in line with overall patterns. Market alignment held true for the final result. Without xG metrics, certain alignments remain unverified. The event impact centers on the balanced scoreline heading into the second leg.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: A moderate structural deviation of 8.8 percent was observed favoring Universitatea Craiova.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match patterns.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be assessed due to unavailable expected goals data.
  • Market alignment: The draw outcome was aligned with market indicators.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be quantified from the available metrics.
  • Event impact: The 1-1 draw leaves the tie balanced ahead of the second leg.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were issued so no distortion occurred from disciplinary events.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
O. Berka
O. Berka
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
M. Vlček
M. Vlček
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
K. Hájek
K. Hájek
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
P. Orel
P. Orel
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
KuPS M. Nuutinen
M. Nuutinen
VS
Universitatea Craiova F. Amaral Rino Coelho
F. Amaral Rino Coelho
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home KuPS
4.39%
Draw
91.23%
Away Universitatea Craiova
4.39%

Movement

Changes since opening
KuPS
-1.64%
Draw
+4.22%
Universitatea Craiova
-2.57%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
16.67
33.33
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
KuPS
Universitatea Craiova
Power Score
16.67
33.33
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
KuPS — Opponent-weighted form score
Universitatea Craiova — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) KuPS Universitatea Craiova

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

KuPS

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Universitatea Craiova

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

KuPS ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Universitatea Craiova
Created Set-piece attacking threat
KuPS Universitatea Craiova
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
KuPS Universitatea Craiova
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
KuPS
Universitatea Craiova
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
KuPS
vs
Universitatea Craiova
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
KuPS Universitatea Craiova
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
KuPS 0.07
Universitatea Craiova 0.21
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
KuPS Universitatea Craiova
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
KuPS 0.03
Universitatea Craiova 0.02
KuPS
Universitatea Craiova
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • UCR had peak pressure around 33'.
  • KUPS started the game with stronger pressure.
KUPS Pressure UCR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: UCR reached the top pressure at 33' (65.18).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Aug 06, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa League, Europe · 3rd Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Savon Sanomat Areena
Capacity
5300
Attendance
1757
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Ondřej Berka
Matěj Vlček
Kamil Hájek
Pavel Orel

Statistics

Possession
KUPS
54%
UCR
46%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
2 Shots 3
55 Dangerous attacks 34
53 Possession 47
6 Corners 2
13 Free kicks 24
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

5 Goal Kicks 5
6 Substitutions 7
26 Throwins 19

Attacking

95 Attacks 86

Defensive

2 Saves 1

Discipline

7 Offsides 0
19 Fouls 15

Lineup

Referee : Ondřej Berka

Starting XI ▼

12
Hemmo Riihimäki
Hemmo Riihimäki Goalkeeper
6.12
4
Kasim Adams
Kasim Adams Defender
6.26
24
Bob Nii Armah
Bob Nii Armah Defender
6.26
25
Clinton Antwi
Clinton Antwi (C) Defender
6.25
3
Saku Heiskanen
Saku Heiskanen
Midfielder83'
6.45
28
Brahima Magassa
Brahima Magassa Defender
6.26
29
Akseli Puukko
Akseli Puukko Defender
6.26
19
Calvin Kabuye
Calvin Kabuye
Attacker60'
6.5
10
Valentín Gasc
Valentín Gasc Midfielder
6.37
20
Piotr Parzyszek
Piotr Parzyszek
Attacker60'
6.5
16
Tommi Jyry
Tommi Jyry Midfielder
6.48
21
Joslyn Luyeye-Lutumba
Joslyn Luyeye-Lutumba Midfielder
6.37
17
Arttu Heinonen
Arttu Heinonen
Midfielder73'
6.5
22
Saikou Touray
Saikou Touray Midfielder
6.37
11
Jaime Moreno
Jaime Moreno Attacker
6.82
Referee : Ondřej Berka

Starting XI ▼

21
Laurențiu Popescu
Laurențiu Popescu Goalkeeper
6.12
6
Vladimir Screciu
Vladimir Screciu Defender
6.26
24
Nikola Stevanovic
Nikola Stevanovic Defender
6.26
28
Adrian Rus
Adrian Rus Defender
6.36
5
Anzor Mekvabishvili
Anzor Mekvabishvili Midfielder
6.37
8
Tudor Băluță
Tudor Băluță
Midfielder90+5'
11
Nicușor Bancu
Nicușor Bancu (C) Midfielder
6.37
17
Carlos Mora
Carlos Mora Midfielder
6.37
20
Alexandru Cicâldău
Alexandru Cicâldău Midfielder
6.5
23
Samuel Teles
Samuel Teles
Midfielder59'
6.37
7
Steven Nsimba
Steven Nsimba Attacker
6.5
9
Assad Al-Hamlawi
Assad Al-Hamlawi
Attacker59'
6.46
10
Ștefan Baiaram
Ștefan Baiaram Attacker
6.86
30
David Matei
David Matei
Midfielder59'
6.37
12
Monday Etim
Monday Etim Attacker
6.46
19
Heri Tavares
Heri Tavares
Attacker73'
6.5

Events

2ND-HALF
90+5'
Event
Tudor Băluță → Anzor Mekvabishvili
10th Substitution
Event
Saku Heiskanen
Elbowing / 3rd Yellowcard
88'
Event
Saku Heiskanen → Clinton Antwi
9th Substitution
83'
Event
Arttu Heinonen → Joslyn Luyeye-Lutumba
7th Substitution
73'
73'
Event
Heri Tavares → Monday Etim
8th Substitution
Event
Jaime Moreno
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
72'
68'
Event
Adrian Rus
Tripping / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Calvin Kabuye → Akseli Puukko
4th Substitution
60'
Event
Piotr Parzyszek → Valentín Gasc
5th Substitution
60'
Event
Saku Savolainen
6th Substitution
60'
59'
Event
Assad Al-Hamlawi → Steven Nsimba
1st Substitution
59'
Event
David Matei → Ștefan Baiaram
2nd Substitution
59'
Event
Samuel Teles → Alexandru Cicâldău
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
39'
Event
Ștefan Baiaram
Field Goal / 1st Goal
Event
Clinton Antwi
Tripping / 1st Yellowcard
36'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Cristian Baluta is on, and Anzor Mekvabishvili is off.
89
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Saku Heiskanen receives a yellow card.
83
Update Update
Saku Heiskanen is on, and Clinton Antwi is off.
73
Update Update
On Heriberto Tavares, off Monday Etim.
73
Update Update
Arttu Heinonen is on, and Joslyn Luyeye-Lutumba is off.
72
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-1.
72
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Corner awarded.
68
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Adrian Rusu receives a yellow card.
61
Update Update
Piotr Parzyszek is on, and Akseli Puukko is off.
60
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
60
Substitution Substitution
Saku Savolainen is substituted for Valentin Gasc.
60
Update Update
Calvin Kabuye replaces Bob Nii Armah.
59
Update Update
Matei David is on, and Stefan Baiaram is off.
59
Update Update
Assad Al Hamlawi comes on for Steven Nsimba.
59
Substitution Substitution
Samuel Teles Pereira Nunes Silva is substituted off for Alexandru Cicaldau.
58
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
50
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
49
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
47
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
39
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-1.
36
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Clinton Antwi receives a yellow card.
32
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
5
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Corner awarded.
5
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Bob Nii Armah scores to make it 1-0.
5
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Bob Nii Armah scores to make it 1-0.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Ondrej Berka.

CONCLUSION

Post match review indicates that the 1-1 draw was a fair reflection of the proceedings between KuPS and Universitatea Craiova. KuPS demonstrated resilience in the second half to level the score after being behind at the interval. Possession favored the home side slightly but did not translate into a win. The moderate deviation observed did not alter the fundamental outcome. Efficiency remained in line without notable shifts. Alignment with market data was confirmed as accurate. xG expectations and alignments were limited by data availability yet the impact of key events proved neutral. Red card distortion was nonexistent given the clean disciplinary record. This leaves both teams with equal opportunities in the return fixture.