Falkirk vs St. Mirren preview

Scotland flag 2026/2027 Premiership, Scotland
Falkirk Community Stadium Sat, 1 Aug - 2:00 PM
Premiership
FalkirkFAL
0 2
St. MirrenSTM
Full Time Sat, 1 Aug 2:00 PM
Round 1 1st Phase
|
Goal
Killian Phillips - 11', 87'

CONTEXT

Falkirk hosted St. Mirren in a match that ended 0-2 to the visitors. The home side controlled 58 percent possession yet registered just 0.84 expected goals. St. Mirren operated with 42 percent possession and produced 1.64 expected goals while scoring twice. Halftime arrived at 0-1 following an away goal. Falkirk entered as the stronger team but could not overcome the deficit. No red cards occurred on either side. The expected goals differential finished at -0.8, underscoring St. Mirren's edge in chance quality. The visitors converted opportunities efficiently despite lower ball dominance.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: St. Mirren recorded a significant deviation from pre-match projections in claiming the victory.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with observed performance indicators.
  • xG alignment: The final result proved consistent with the expected goals data.
  • Market alignment: The outcome aligned with available pre-match indicators.
  • xG expectations: Falkirk posted 0.84 xG against St. Mirren's 1.64 xG.
  • Event impact: The away side's opening goal at halftime shaped the 0-2 result.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were issued and the match experienced no distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Nicolson
D. Nicolson
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
F. Connor
F. Connor
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
C. Gentles
C. Gentles
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
G. Grainger
G. Grainger
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Falkirk J. McGlynn
J. McGlynn
VS
St. Mirren C. McLeish
C. McLeish
1.07
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.93
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rangers Rank: 79 L
Hearts Rank: 75 L
Hibernian Rank: 72 L
Motherwell Rank: 72 W
Celtic Rank: 83 L
Rangers Rank: 79 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dundee United Rank: 66 D
Aberdeen Rank: 64 W
Kilmarnock Rank: 66 L
Dundee Rank: 64 L
Livingston Rank: 56 L
Celtic Rank: 83 L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 2
2

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
66.08
63.34
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Falkirk
St. Mirren
Power Score
66.08
63.34
League Position
12
1
Global Rank
418
522

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Falkirk — Opponent-weighted form score
St. Mirren — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Falkirk St. Mirren

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Falkirk

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

St. Mirren

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Falkirk ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy St. Mirren
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.41
40.12
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
40.12
27.41
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Falkirk -1.35 Efficiency Index
vs
St. Mirren +1.35 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Falkirk
St. Mirren
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Falkirk
vs
St. Mirren
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Falkirk St. Mirren
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
18%
11%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.15 vs -0.18
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Falkirk St. Mirren
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
11%
18%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.18 vs -0.15
Falkirk
St. Mirren
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Falkirk
vs
St. Mirren
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Falkirk St. Mirren
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Falkirk 0.22
St. Mirren 0.41
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Falkirk St. Mirren
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Falkirk 0.05
St. Mirren 0.00
Falkirk
St. Mirren
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • FAL had peak pressure around 75'.
  • FAL started the game with stronger pressure.
FAL Pressure STM Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: FAL reached the top pressure at 75' (76.59).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Falkirk FAL Home
3 matches
St. Mirren STM Away
Match Record
1
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
1
Goals
4
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
4
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
1.17
xG
0.85
0.85
xGA
1.17

Data last updated: 2026-08-02T00:01:21+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Aug 01, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Premiership, Scotland · Round 1 · 1st Phase
Stadium
Falkirk Community Stadium
Capacity
7937
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Duncan Nicolson
Frank Connor
Chris Gentles
Graham Grainger

Statistics

Possession
FAL
56%
STM
44%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
8 Shots 8
58 Dangerous attacks 37
58 Possession 42
7 Corners 7
18 Free kicks 18
0 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

71 Ball Safe 69
5 Goal Attempts 10
5 Substitutions 4
24 Throwins 17
18 Successful Headers 10
0 Assists 2
0 Injuries 1
5 Dribble Attempts 10

Attacking

111 Attacks 72

Possession

42 Long Passes 19
432 Passes 321
344 Successful Passes 243
80 Successful Passes Percentage 76
6 Key Passes 12

Defensive

4 Saves 1
14 Tackles 15
5 Interceptions 4

Build-up

23 Total Crosses 12

Discipline

3 Offsides 2
18 Fouls 18

Lineup

Referee : Duncan Nicolson

Starting XI ▼

19
Scott Bain
Scott Bain Goalkeeper
6.98
5
Liam Henderson
Liam Henderson (C) Defender
6.89
17
Scott Tanser
Scott Tanser Defender
6.52
3
Leon McCann
Leon McCann
Defender79'
6.48
21
Deniss Melniks
Deniss Melniks Defender
6.32
22
Ryan Strain
Ryan Strain Defender
7.24
4
J. McMillan
J. McMillan Midfielder
7.14
23
Ethan Ross
Ethan Ross
Attacker70'
6.62
10
Craig Sibbald
Craig Sibbald Midfielder
6.64
12
Ethan Laidlaw Midfielder
14
Finn Yeats
Finn Yeats Midfielder
6.74
18
Joe Gardner
Joe Gardner Midfielder
6.45
47
Aodhan Doherty
Aodhan Doherty
Attacker59'
6.4
9
Ross MacIver
Ross MacIver Attacker
6.55
7
Ben Parkinson
Ben Parkinson
Attacker70'
6.51
Referee : Duncan Nicolson

Starting XI ▼

1
Jacob Chapman
Jacob Chapman Goalkeeper
6.83
2
Jayden Richardson
Jayden Richardson Defender
7.42
13
Alex Gogic
Alex Gogic Defender
7.13
22
Marcus Fraser
Marcus Fraser (C) Defender
7.46
53
Henry Fieldson
Henry Fieldson Defender
7.47
8
Ryan Carr
Ryan Carr Midfielder
6.28
4
Liam Donnelly
Liam Donnelly
Midfielder76'
6.71
10
Samuel Ramos
Samuel Ramos Midfielder
6.78
16
Luke Thomas
Luke Thomas
Midfielder76'
6.72
23
Chris Mochrie
Chris Mochrie Midfielder
6.61
7
Roland Idowu
Roland Idowu
Midfielder83'
6.96
48
Paul Nsio
Paul Nsio Midfielder
6.87
88
Killian Phillips
Killian Phillips Midfielder
2
8.64
9
Eseosa Sule
Eseosa Sule Attacker
6.79
20
Jake Young
Jake Young
Attacker63'
6.59

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
Luke Thomas
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
88'
Event
Killian Phillips
Unsportsmanlike conduct / 3rd Yellowcard
87'
Event
Killian Phillips
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
83'
Event
Roland Idowu → Chris Mochrie
9th Substitution
80'
Event
Henry Fieldson
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Leon McCann → Scott Tanser
7th Substitution
79'
Event
Paul McGovern → Ethan Laidlaw
8th Substitution
79'
76'
Event
Liam Donnelly → Ryan Carr
5th Substitution
76'
Event
Luke Thomas → Samuel Ramos
6th Substitution
Event
Ben Parkinson
Handball / Goal Disallowed
73'
Event
Ben Parkinson → Ross MacIver
3rd Substitution
70'
Event
Ethan Ross → J. McMillan
4th Substitution
70'
66'
Event
Ryan Carr
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
63'
Event
Jake Young → Eseosa Sule
2nd Substitution
Event
Aodhan Doherty → Joe Gardner
1st Substitution
59'
1ST-HALF
11'
Event
Killian Phillips
Field Goal / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Attempt Attempt
Roland Idowu takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Attempt Attempt
Roland Idowu takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
90
Update Update
Offside.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Luke Thomas receives a yellow card.
88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Killian Phillips.
87
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Killian Phillips takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
87
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Killian Phillips scores to make it 0-2, assisted by Roland Idowu.
86
Attempt Attempt
Craig Sibbald takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
86
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded.
85
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
83
Update Update
Roland Idowu is on, and Chris Mochrie is off.
80
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Henry Fieldson.
79
Update Update
Paul McGovern is on, and Ethan Laidlaw is off.
79
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Henry Fieldson.
78
Attempt Attempt
Craig Sibbald's right-footed shot is blocked.
76
Update Update
Liam Donnelly replaces Ryan Carr.
76
Substitution Substitution
Luke Thomas is substituted for Samuel Ramos.
74
Attempt Attempt
Killian Phillips takes a right-footed shot but misses.
70
GOAL! GOAL! Important
VAR decision: Goal disallowed due to handball by Ben Parkinson.
70
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Ben Parkinson takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
70
Update Update
Ethan Ross is on, and Jack McMillan is off.
70
Update Update
Ben Parkinson is on, and Ross MacIver is off.
70
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Ben Parkinson scores to make it 1-1, assisted by Deniss Melniks.
68
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-1.
68
Attempt Attempt
Craig Sibbald takes a left-footed shot but misses.
68
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
68
Attempt Attempt
Ryan Strain takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
66
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ryan Carr receives a yellow card.
66
Attempt Attempt
Jake Young takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
64
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
64
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Jake Young comes on for Eseosa Sule.
61
Attempt Attempt
Eseosa Sule takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
60
Attempt Attempt
Paul Nsio attempts a header but misses the shot.
59
Update Update
Aodhan Doherty is on, and Joe Gardner is off.
54
Update Update
Aodhan Doherty comes on for Joe Gardner.
54
Attempt Attempt
Alexandros Gogic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
54
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
52
Update Update
Offside.
52
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
47
Update Update
Offside.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
45
Attempt Attempt
Killian Phillips takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
43
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
40
Attempt Attempt
Samuel Ramos takes a left-footed shot but misses.
36
Attempt Attempt
Ross MacIver takes a right-footed shot but misses.
35
Attempt Attempt
Finn Yeats takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
33
Attempt Attempt
Eseosa Sule takes a right-footed shot but misses.
27
Update Update
Offside.
21
Attempt Attempt
Finn Yeats takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
20
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
18
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
18
Update Update
Offside.
17
Update Update
Offside.
17
Attempt Attempt
Ryan Carr takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
11
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Killian Phillips scores with a right-footed shot.
11
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Killian Phillips scores to make it 0-1, assisted by Henry Fieldson.
9
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
9
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
5
Attempt Attempt
Jack McMillan takes a right-footed shot but misses.
2
Attempt Attempt
Eseosa Sule takes a right-footed shot, but it misses the target.
1
Update Update
Kick-off has occurred!

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Falkirk 0-2 St. Mirren. Structural assessment: St. Mirren exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.