Ilves vs Stjarnan preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Tammelan Stadion Today - 4:00 PM
Europa Conference League
Ilves ILV
Stjarnan STJ
KICKOFF : Today - 4:00 PM
2nd Qualifying Round Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 0 - 1

CONTEXT

Ilves welcome Stjarnan to Tammelan Stadion for the second leg of their Europa Conference League second qualifying round tie. The first leg ended 1-0 to the visitors, leaving Stjarnan with a narrow aggregate advantage entering this fixture. Power metrics indicate Stjarnan hold the edge with a 13.3 point advantage and higher overall rating. Both sides operate without recent domestic form records to reference, placing emphasis on this European encounter. The home side must find a way to overturn the deficit while Stjarnan look to protect their lead. Venue familiarity offers Ilves a platform to impose their style, yet the Icelandic visitors carry stronger underlying numbers across key indicators. This match represents a critical step for progression in the competition.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Ilves host the second leg at Tammelan Stadion after a 1-0 first-leg defeat away.
  • Form: Stjarnan hold a clear form advantage with 38.89 versus Ilves 22.22.
  • Squad: Limited squad data is available for both teams ahead of the fixture.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics remain unavailable for this qualifying tie.
  • Transition: Transition play details are not provided in available data.
  • Set pieces: Set-piece data shows low confidence with no xG values recorded.
  • xVariable: Stjarnan are the stronger side by 13.3 power points overall.
  • Market: Projection split: Ilves 51.7% (Δ+0%) | Draw 24.9% (Δ+0%) | Stjarnan 23.5% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Ilves Camilo Speranza Borde
Camilo Speranza Borde
VS
Stjarnan J. Hauksson
J. Hauksson
1.33
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.33
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Stjarnan Rank: L
Differdange 03 Rank: W
Differdange 03 Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Ilves Rank: W
Víkingur Rank: D
Víkingur Rank: W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Ilves
51.66%
Draw
24.88%
Away Stjarnan
23.46%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
27.78
41.11
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Ilves
Stjarnan
Power Score
27.78
41.11
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Ilves — Opponent-weighted form score
Stjarnan — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Ilves Stjarnan

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Ilves ILV Home
1 matches
Stjarnan STJ Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
0
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-28T00:07:14+00:00

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 30, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 0 - 1
Stadium
Tammelan Stadion
Capacity
8077
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Mervan Bejtullahu

Squad

Referee : Mervan Bejtullahu

Squad ▼

1
Otso Virtanen
Otso Virtanen Goalkeeper
31
Rasmus Leislahti
Rasmus Leislahti Goalkeeper
12
Faris Krkalic
Faris Krkalic Goalkeeper
5
Sauli Väisänen
Sauli Väisänen Defender
16
Tatu Miettunen
Tatu Miettunen Defender
3
Matias Rale
Matias Rale Defender
13
Kalle Wallius
Kalle Wallius Defender
4
Oliver Pettersson
Oliver Pettersson Defender
25
Sebastian Suvanne
Sebastian Suvanne Defender
24
Ville Kumpu
Ville Kumpu Defender
19
Bamba Abdoul Goudouss
Bamba Abdoul Goudouss Defender
7
Joona Veteli
Joona Veteli Midfielder
15
Lauri Ala-Myllymäki
Lauri Ala-Myllymäki Midfielder
14
Anton Popovits
Anton Popovits Midfielder
8
Maksim Stjopin
Maksim Stjopin Midfielder
28
Jesse Kilo
Jesse Kilo Midfielder
30
Jardell Kanga
Jardell Kanga Midfielder
6
Yiandro Raap
Yiandro Raap Midfielder
22
Oskari Multala
Oskari Multala Midfielder
20
Otto Tiitinen
Otto Tiitinen Midfielder
10
Roope Riski
Roope Riski Attacker
9
Teemu Hytönen
Teemu Hytönen Attacker
33
Oskari Tapio Paavola
Oskari Tapio Paavola Attacker
17
Stanislav Baranov
Stanislav Baranov Attacker
Referee : Mervan Bejtullahu

Squad ▼

12
Árni Snær Ólafsson
Árni Snær Ólafsson Goalkeeper
1
Darri Bergmann Gylfason
Darri Bergmann Gylfason Goalkeeper
31
Damil Dankerlui
Damil Dankerlui Defender
5
Guðmundur Kristjánsson
Guðmundur Kristjánsson Defender
2
Heiðar Ægisson
Heiðar Ægisson Defender
—
Ari Leifsson
Ari Leifsson Defender
6
Sindri Thor Ingimarsson
Sindri Thor Ingimarsson Defender
3
Gustav Kjeldsen
Gustav Kjeldsen Defender
4
Thorri Mar Thórisson
Thorri Mar Thórisson Defender
32
Örvar Logi Örvarsson
Örvar Logi Örvarsson Defender
78
Bjarki Hauksson
Bjarki Hauksson Defender
—
Sigurður Gunnar Jónsson
Sigurður Gunnar Jónsson Defender
29
Alex Þór Hauksson
Alex Þór Hauksson Midfielder
19
Daníel Finns Matthíasson
Daníel Finns Matthíasson Midfielder
8
Jóhann Árni Gunnarsson
Jóhann Árni Gunnarsson Midfielder
23
Benedikt Waren
Benedikt Waren Midfielder
18
Guðmundur Baldvin Nökkvason
Guðmundur Baldvin Nökkvason Midfielder
22
Emil Atlason
Emil Atlason Attacker
—
Árni Vilhjálmsson
Árni Vilhjálmsson Attacker
14
Birnir Snær Ingason
Birnir Snær Ingason Attacker
99
Andri Rúnar Bjarnason
Andri Rúnar Bjarnason Attacker
7
Örvar Eggertsson
Örvar Eggertsson Attacker
37
Haukur Brink
Haukur Brink Attacker

CONCLUSION

Stjarnan carry a slender lead into the return leg and will aim to manage the game with discipline at a difficult venue. Ilves possess home support and the opportunity to create pressure throughout the ninety minutes. The absence of recent form indicators increases the importance of in-game adjustments and individual quality. Stjarnan’s superior power rating suggests they remain well placed to advance if they maintain defensive structure. Ilves must balance attacking intent with the need to avoid further concessions on the night. Both teams face a high-stakes European night where small margins will decide progression to the next round.