Beitar Jerusalem vs AEK Larnaca preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Stadionul Ilie Oană Thu, 30 Jul - 5:30 PM
Europa Conference League
Beitar Jerusalem BEI
2 3
AEK Larnaca AEK
Full Time: Finished on Penalties Thu, 30 Jul 5:30 PM
2nd Qualifying Round Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 3 - 3
Brayan Carabalí - 2'
Eugene Ansah - 4'
Yarden Cohen - 6'
Timothy Muzie - 8'
Omer Atzili - 45+2' (P), 87'
Goal
|
Goal
Hrvoje Milicevic  - 1', 26' (P), 52'
Djordje Ivanovic - 3'
Waldo Rubio  - 5'
Kostas Pileas - 7'
Charalampos Kyriakou - 9'
Riad Bajic - 90+2'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Beitar Jerusalem 2–3 AEK Larnaca. The result saw AEK Larnaca take the points. AEK Larnaca showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 63%–37%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Deviation measured 4.4 percent at a minimal level with AEK Larnaca identified as the deviation team.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with the overall match pattern.
  • xG alignment: xG data was unavailable so alignment could not be assessed.
  • Market alignment: The final result proved aligned with market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be formed because home and away xG values were null.
  • Event impact: AEK Larnaca's 3-2 win in leg two decided the aggregate tie.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred so no distortion affected the match outcome.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Fabio Verssimo
Fabio Verssimo
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
P. Almeida
P. Almeida
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
H. França Luís Coimbra
H. França Luís Coimbra
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
D. Rosa
D. Rosa
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Beitar Jerusalem A. Cohen
A. Cohen
VS
AEK Larnaca M. Camoranesi
M. Camoranesi
3
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.33
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
AEK Larnaca Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Beitar Jerusalem Rank: L
Crystal Palace Rank: 88 L
Crystal Palace Rank: 88 D
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Beitar Jerusalem
0.64%
Draw
3.72%
Away AEK Larnaca
95.64%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
50
14.82
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Beitar Jerusalem
AEK Larnaca
Power Score
50
14.82
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Beitar Jerusalem — Opponent-weighted form score
AEK Larnaca — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Beitar Jerusalem AEK Larnaca

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Beitar Jerusalem

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

AEK Larnaca

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Beitar Jerusalem ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy AEK Larnaca
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
46.19
36.89
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
36.89
46.19
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Beitar Jerusalem +0.91 Efficiency Index
vs
AEK Larnaca -0.91 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Beitar Jerusalem
AEK Larnaca
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Beitar Jerusalem ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy AEK Larnaca
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Beitar Jerusalem AEK Larnaca
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
5.00 6.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Beitar Jerusalem AEK Larnaca
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
6.00 5.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Beitar Jerusalem
AEK Larnaca
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Beitar Jerusalem
vs
AEK Larnaca
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Beitar Jerusalem AEK Larnaca
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Beitar Jerusalem 0.24
AEK Larnaca 0.14
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Beitar Jerusalem AEK Larnaca
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Beitar Jerusalem 0.08
AEK Larnaca 0.06
Beitar Jerusalem
AEK Larnaca
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • AEK had peak pressure around 88'.
  • BEI started the game with stronger pressure.
BEI Pressure AEK Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: AEK reached the top pressure at 88' (59.35).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Beitar Jerusalem BEI Home
1 matches
AEK Larnaca AEK Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
1
Goals
1
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
1
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-31T00:04:43+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
J. Macedo Silva
Portugal
55 J. Macedo Silva
N. Antwi
Ghana
2 N. Antwi
B. Carabalí Bonilla
Colombia
4 B. Carabalí Bonilla
G. Cohen
Substitution
Israel
5 G. Cohen
Y. Cohen
Israel
16 Y. Cohen
N. Mucha
Substitution
Israel
15 N. Mucha
B. Takang
Cameroon
40 B. Takang
D. Worko
Substitution
Israel
26 D. Worko
O. Atzili
Substitution
Israel
77 (C) O. Atzili
S. Weissman
Substitution
Israel
19 S. Weissman
J. Kalu
Substitution
Nigeria
9 J. Kalu
A. Paraskevas
Cyprus
51 A. Paraskevas
Y. Gurfinkel
Substitution
Israel
13 Y. Gurfinkel
E. Saborit Teixidor
Substitution
Spain
4 E. Saborit Teixidor
H. Miličević
Bosnia and Herzegovina
15 (C) H. Miličević
J. Miramón Santagertrudis
Substitution
Spain
21 J. Miramón Santagertrudis
L. Ledes Evangelista dos Santos
Substitution
Portugal
7 L. Ledes Evangelista dos Santos
I. Pankov
Substitution
Bulgaria
6 I. Pankov
Y. Amyn
Iraq
8 Y. Amyn
J. Repas
Slovenia
20 J. Repas
A. Layouni
Substitution
Tunisia
14 A. Layouni
R. Bajić
Bosnia and Herzegovina
11 R. Bajić

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 30, 2026, 05:30 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 3 - 3
Stadium
Stadionul Ilie Oană
Capacity
15500
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Fabio Verssimo
Pedro Almeida
Hugo Alexandre França Luís Coimbra
Diogo Rosa

Statistics

Possession
BEI
57%
AEK
43%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 3
10 Shots 2
102 Dangerous attacks 73
63 Possession 37
5 Corners 8
26 Free kicks 22
6 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

108 Ball Safe 101
1 Penalties 1
17 Goal Attempts 7
6 Substitutions 6
39 Throwins 28

Attacking

144 Attacks 107

Discipline

2 Offsides 3
23 Fouls 28

Lineup

Referee : Fabio Verssimo

Starting XI ▼

55
Miguel Silva
Miguel Silva Goalkeeper
5.68
2
Nana Antwi
Nana Antwi Defender
5.98
4
Brayan Carabalí
Brayan Carabalí Defender
5.86
5
Gil Cohen
Gil Cohen Defender
6.05
25
Liel Deri
Liel Deri
Defender75'
6.26
16
Yarden Cohen
Yarden Cohen Defender
5.86
15
Noam Muche
Noam Muche Midfielder
6.23
8
Ziv Ben Shimol
Ziv Ben Shimol
Midfielder75'
6.37
26
Degats Worko
Degats Worko Midfielder
6.13
24
Nadav Markovich
Nadav Markovich
Midfielder111'
6.5
40
Boris Enow
Boris Enow Midfielder
6.18
9
Johnbosco Samuel Kalu
Johnbosco Samuel Kalu Attacker
6.46
13
Eugene Ansah
Eugene Ansah
Attacker46'
6.43
19
Shon Weissman
Shon Weissman Attacker
6.43
11
Timothy Muzie
Timothy Muzie
Midfielder59'
6.37
77
Omer Atzili
Omer Atzili (C) Attacker
2
6.86
7
Yarden Shua
Yarden Shua
Attacker90'
6.46
Referee : Fabio Verssimo

Starting XI ▼

51
Andreas Paraskevas
Andreas Paraskevas Goalkeeper
5.88
4
Enric Saborit
Enric Saborit Defender
6.26
44
Zacharias Adoni
Zacharias Adoni
Defender77'
6.25
13
Yahav Gurfinkel
Yahav Gurfinkel Defender
6.26
17
Kostas Pileas
Kostas Pileas
Defender69'
6.26
15
Hrvoje Milicevic
Hrvoje Milicevic (C) Defender
2
6.2
6
Ivan Pankov
Ivan Pankov Midfielder
6.27
25
Charalampos Kyriakou
Charalampos Kyriakou
Midfielder94'
6.5
7
Gus Ledes
Gus Ledes Midfielder
6.27
9
Djordje Ivanovic
Djordje Ivanovic
Midfielder90'
6.5
8
Youssef Amyn
Youssef Amyn Midfielder
6.27
14
Amor Layouni
Amor Layouni Midfielder
6.37
22
Godswill Ekpolo
Godswill Ekpolo
Defender46'
6.25
20
Jan Repas
Jan Repas Midfielder
6.27
21
Jorge Miramón
Jorge Miramón Midfielder
6.37
10
Waldo Rubio
Waldo Rubio
Midfielder69'
6.37
11
Riad Bajic
Riad Bajic Attacker
6.79

Events

2ND-HALF
118'
Event
Hrvoje Milicevic 
Foul / 9th Yellowcard
Event
Nana Antwi
Foul / 8th Yellowcard
115'
Event
Nadav Markovich → Degats Worko
12th Substitution
111'
105+1'
Event
Godswill Ekpolo
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
103'
Event
Zacharias Adoni
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
94'
Event
Charalampos Kyriakou → Ivan Pankov
11th Substitution
Event
Yarden Shua
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+5'
90+2'
Event
Riad Bajic
Field Goal / 3rd Goal
Event
Yarden Shua → Omer Atzili
10th Substitution
90'
90'
Event
Djordje Ivanovic → Gus Ledes
9th Substitution
Event
Omer Atzili
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
87'
77'
Event
Zacharias Adoni → Enric Saborit 
8th Substitution
Event
Liel Deri → Gil Cohen
6th Substitution
75'
Event
Ziv Ben Shimol → Noam Muche
7th Substitution
75'
Event
Degats Worko
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
69'
69'
Event
Kostas Pileas → Yahav Gurfinkel
4th Substitution
69'
Event
Waldo Rubio  → Jorge Miramón
5th Substitution
Event
Yarden Cohen
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
67'
Event
Timothy Muzie → Shon Weissman
3rd Substitution
59'
52'
Event
Hrvoje Milicevic 
Field Goal / 1st Goal
Event
Brayan Carabalí
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
51'
Event
Noam Muche
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
49'
Event
Eugene Ansah → Johnbosco Samuel Kalu
1st Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Godswill Ekpolo → Amor Layouni
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Omer Atzili
Penalty / 2nd Penalty
45+2'
Event
Almog Cohen
Argument / 10th Yellowcard
41'
26'
Event
Hrvoje Milicevic 
Penalty / 1st Penalty
9'
Event
Charalampos Kyriakou
Goalkeeper save
Event
Timothy Muzie
Scored
8'
7'
Event
Kostas Pileas
Scored
Event
Yarden Cohen
Scored
6'
5'
Event
Waldo Rubio 
Goalkeeper save
Event
Eugene Ansah
Scored
4'
3'
Event
Djordje Ivanovic
Scored
Event
Brayan Carabalí
Scored
2'
1'
Event
Hrvoje Milicevic 
Scored

Match Commentary

125
Update Update
Penalty miss by Charis Kyriakou. The score remains 4-3.
125
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Timothy Muzie scores, making it 4-3.
125
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Penalty goal! Kostas Pileas scores, making it 3-3.
125
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Penalty goal! Yarden Cohen scores, making it 3-2.
125
Update Update
Penalty miss by Waldo Rubio. The match remains 2-2.
125
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Eugene Ansah scores a penalty, making it 2-2.
125
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Djordje Ivanovic scores, making it 1-2.
125
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Brayan Carabali scores, making it 1-1.
125
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Penalty goal! Hrvoje Milicevic scores, making it 0-1.
118
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Hrvoje Milicevic.
117
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
115
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Nana Kwame Antwi.
111
Update Update
Nadav Markovitch comes on for Daniel Worko.
110
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Nana Kwame Antwi.
110
Update Update
Nadav Markovitch comes on for Daniel Worko.
109
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
109
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
105
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Elohor Godswill Ekpolo.
103
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Zacharias Adoni receives a yellow card.
96
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
94
Update Update
On comes Charis Kyriakou, and off goes Ivan Chavdarov Pankov.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yarden Shua receives a yellow card.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 2-3.
90
Update Update
Djordje Ivanovic comes on for Luis Gustavo Ledes Evangelista Santos.
90
Update Update
Yarden Shua is on, and Omer Atzili is off.
87
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Omer Atzili scores, bringing the match to 2-2.
85
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
77
Update Update
Zacharias Adoni comes on for Enric Saborit.
75
Update Update
On Liel Deri, off Gil. Yarden Cohen.
75
Substitution Substitution
Ziv Israel Ben Shimol is substituted off for Noam Mucha.
74
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
73
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
72
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
69
Update Update
Waldo Rubio comes on for Jorge Miramon Santagertrudis.
69
Update Update
Kostas Pileas is on, and Yahav Gurfinkel is off.
69
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
68
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yarden Cohen receives a yellow card.
59
Update Update
Timothy Muzie is on, and Shon Weissman is off.
58
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
53
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Hrvoje Milicevic scores, making it 1-2.
51
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Brayan Carabali receives a yellow card.
46
Update Update
Elohor Godswill Ekpolo is on, and Amor Layouni is off.
46
Update Update
Eugene Ansah is on, and Johnbosco Samuel Kalu is off.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Omer Atzili scores, making it 1-1.
42
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Omer Atzili scores, making it 1-1.
41
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
41
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yarden Cohen receives a yellow card.
26
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Hrvoje Milicevic scores, making it 0-1.
26
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-1.
24
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Beitar Jerusalem 2-3 AEK Larnaca. Structural assessment: AEK Larnaca exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.