The New Saints vs Flora preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Park Hall Stadium Thu, 30 Jul - 5:30 PM
Europa Conference League
The New SaintsTNS
1 0
FloraFLOR2
Full Time: Finished on Penalties Thu, 30 Jul 5:30 PM
2nd Qualifying Round Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 1 - 1
Ben Wilson - 2', 90+1'
Goal
|
Goal

CONTEXT

Match is finished. The New Saints 1–0 Flora. The result saw The New Saints take the points. The New Saints showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 59%–41%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: The New Saints recorded minimal deviation from pre-match positioning in the 1-0 result.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with expectations across both sides.
  • xG alignment: No expected goals data was available to assess alignment.
  • Market alignment: The result aligned with market positioning for the stronger team.
  • xG expectations: Expected goals figures were not recorded for either side.
  • Event impact: The second half goal decided the 1-0 outcome for The New Saints.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred and therefore no distortion affected team structures.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
V. Spasjoņņikovs
V. Spasjoņņikovs
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
R. Tatriks
R. Tatriks
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Šakurovs
A. Šakurovs
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Ķēniņš
A. Ķēniņš
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
The New Saints C. Harrison
C. Harrison
VS
Flora K. Vassiljev
K. Vassiljev
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
3
0 i
Last 6 Opponents
Flora Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
The New Saints Rank: 62 W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home The New Saints
95.69%
Draw
3.68%
Away Flora
0.63%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
38.89
27.78
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
The New Saints
Flora
Power Score
38.89
27.78
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
The New Saints — Opponent-weighted form score
Flora — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) The New Saints Flora

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

The New Saints

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Flora

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

The New Saints ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Flora
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
52.37
26.34
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.34
52.37
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
The New Saints +2.45 Efficiency Index
vs
Flora -2.45 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
The New Saints
Flora
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

The New Saints ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Flora
Created Set-piece attacking threat
The New Saints Flora
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
4.00 5.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
The New Saints Flora
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
5.00 4.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
The New Saints
Flora
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
The New Saints
vs
Flora
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
The New Saints Flora
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
The New Saints 0.27
Flora 0.14
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
The New Saints Flora
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
The New Saints 0.07
Flora 0.03
The New Saints
Flora
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • TNS had peak pressure around 86'.
  • TNS started the game with stronger pressure.
TNS Pressure FLOR2 Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: TNS reached the top pressure at 86' (70.92).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

The New Saints TNS Home
1 matches
Flora FLOR2 Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
0
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-31T00:04:47+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 30, 2026, 05:30 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 1 - 1
Stadium
Park Hall Stadium
Capacity
2000
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Vitālijs Spasjoņņikovs
Raimonds Tatriks
Artūrs Šakurovs
Artis Ķēniņš

Statistics

Possession
TNS
56%
FLOR2
44%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
11 Shots 4
98 Dangerous attacks 56
59 Possession 41
6 Corners 3
22 Free kicks 18
6 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

124 Ball Safe 120
14 Goal Attempts 3
6 Substitutions 7
28 Throwins 24
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

134 Attacks 124

Discipline

0 Offsides 3
17 Fouls 21

Lineup

Referee : Vitālijs Spasjoņņikovs

Starting XI ▼

1
Nathan Shepperd
Nathan Shepperd Goalkeeper
6.5
6
Jack Bodenham
Jack Bodenham Defender
6.61
14
Daniel Williams
Daniel Williams Defender
6.49
16
Dynel Simeu
Dynel Simeu Defender
6.49
22
Danny Davies
Danny Davies Defender
6.49
10
Daniel Redmond
Daniel Redmond (C) Midfielder
6.45
23
Zach Nolan
Zach Nolan
Defender106'
6.5
15
Eoin Farrell
Eoin Farrell Midfielder
6.5
19
Ben Clark
Ben Clark
Midfielder81'
6.5
18
Rory Holden
Rory Holden Midfielder
6.5
8
Ryan Brobbel
Ryan Brobbel
Midfielder66'
6.5
20
Rhys Hughes
Rhys Hughes Midfielder
6.45
34
Joshua Lock
Joshua Lock
Midfielder87'
6.5
21
Leo Smith
Leo Smith Midfielder
6.5
37
Isaac Jefferies
Isaac Jefferies
Midfielder66'
6.5
17
Jordan Williams
Jordan Williams Attacker
6.46
28
Ben Wilson
Ben Wilson
Attacker81'
6.86
Referee : Vitālijs Spasjoņņikovs

Starting XI ▼

33
Evert Grünvald
Evert Grünvald Goalkeeper
6.12
3
Airon Kollo
Airon Kollo Defender
6.26
23
Mihhail Kolobov
Mihhail Kolobov Defender
6.26
26
Sander Tovstik
Sander Tovstik Defender
6.5
67
Ilja Antonov
Ilja Antonov
Midfielder20'
6.33
7
Danil Kuraksin
Danil Kuraksin Midfielder
6.5
6
Robert Veering
Robert Veering
Defender80'
6.26
14
Tony Varjund
Tony Varjund Midfielder
6.37
18
Remo Valdmets
Remo Valdmets Midfielder
6.37
20
Sergei Zenjov
Sergei Zenjov Midfielder
6.33
89
Maksim Kalimullin
Maksim Kalimullin
Midfielder110'
6.5
29
Sander Alamaa
Sander Alamaa Midfielder
6.5
9
Rauno Alliku
Rauno Alliku
Midfielder66'
6.37
32
Vladislav Kreida
Vladislav Kreida Midfielder
6.5
8
Tristan Teeväli
Tristan Teeväli
Midfielder80'
6.37
11
Rauno Sappinen
Rauno Sappinen (C) Attacker
6.46
17
Taaniel Usta
Taaniel Usta
Attacker106'
6.5

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Danny Davies
Foul / 8th Yellowcard
120+1'
110'
Event
Maksim Kalimullin → Sergei Zenjov
12th Substitution
Event
Zach Nolan → Daniel Redmond 
10th Substitution
106'
106'
Event
Taaniel Usta → Rauno Sappinen
11th Substitution
Event
Dynel Simeu
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
102'
Event
Daniel Redmond 
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
97'
92'
Event
Sergei Zenjov
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Ben Wilson
Field Goal / 1st Goal
90+1'
Event
Joshua Lock → Rhys Hughes
9th Substitution
87'
Event
Daniel Williams
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
86'
Event
Ben Clark → Eoin Farrell
7th Substitution
81'
Event
Ben Wilson → Jordan Williams
8th Substitution
81'
80'
Event
Tristan Teeväli → Vladislav Kreida
5th Substitution
80'
Event
Robert Veering → Danil Kuraksin
6th Substitution
Event
Ryan Brobbel → Rory Holden
3rd Substitution
66'
Event
Isaac Jefferies → Leo Smith
4th Substitution
66'
66'
Event
Rauno Alliku  → Sander Alamaa
2nd Substitution
Event
Rhys Hughes
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
65'
1ST-HALF
41'
Event
Ilja Antonov
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
20'
Event
Ilja Antonov → Sander Tovstik
1st Substitution
Event
Jordan Williams
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
16'
9'
Event
Taaniel Usta
Scored
Event
Daniel Williams
Scored
8'
7'
Event
Maksim Kalimullin
Scored
Event
Joshua Lock
Off target
6'
5'
Event
Tony Varjund
Goalkeeper save
Event
Ryan Brobbel
Scored
4'
3'
Event
Rauno Alliku 
Scored
Event
Ben Wilson
Goalkeeper save
2'
1'
Event
Tristan Teeväli
Scored

Match Commentary

125
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Taaniel Usta scores, making it 2-4.
125
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Penalty Goal - Daniel Patrick Williams 2-3
125
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Penalty goal scored, making it 1-3.
125
Update Update
Penalty miss by Josh Lock. The score remains 1-2.
125
Update Update
Penalty miss. The score remains 1-2.
125
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Ryan Brobbel scores, making it 1-2.
125
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Rauno Alliku scores a penalty, making it 0-2.
125
Update Update
Penalty miss. The score remains 0-1.
125
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Penalty goal! Tristan Toomas Teevali scores, making it 1-0.
120
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Archie Daniel Davies.
110
Update Update
Maksim Kalimullin is on, and Sergei Zenjov is off.
106
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
106
Update Update
Taaniel Usta comes on for Rauno Sappinen.
105
Update Update
Zach Nolan comes on, and Daniel Redmond goes off.
102
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
97
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Daniel Redmond.
92
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Sergei Zenjov receives a yellow card.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-0.
87
Substitution Substitution
Josh Lock is substituted for Rhys Hughes.
86
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Daniel Patrick Williams.
81
Update Update
On Ben Clark, off Eoin Farrell.
81
Substitution Substitution
Ben Wilson is substituted for Jordan Williams.
80
Update Update
Tristan Toomas Teevali is on, and Vladislav Kreida is off.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Robert Veering comes on for Danil Kuraksin.
66
Update Update
Isaac Jefferies is on, and Leo Smith is off.
66
Update Update
Ryan Brobbel is on, and Rory Holden is off.
66
Update Update
Rauno Alliku comes on for Sander Alamaa.
65
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown.
62
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
54
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
54
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
50
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
48
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
41
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ilja Antonov receives a yellow card.
38
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
20
Update Update
Ilja Antonov comes on for Sander Tovstik.
16
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jordan Williams receives a yellow card.
5
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Vitalijs Spasjonnikovs.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: The New Saints 1-0 Flora. Structural assessment: The New Saints exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.