CSKA Sofia vs Qarabağ preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa League, Europe
Stadion Bâlgarska Armija Thu, 30 Jul - 6:00 PM
Europa League
CSKA SofiaCSK
0 – 0
QarabağQAR
Full Time: Finished on Penalties Thu, 30 Jul 6:00 PM
2nd Qualifying Round Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 0 - 0
James Eto'o - 10'
Goal
|
Goal
Matheus Silva - 3' (P)

CONTEXT

In the second leg of their two-legged knockout encounter CSKA Sofia and Qarabağ played out a tense 0-0 draw that mirrored the scoreline from the opening fixture seven days prior. Entering the match with an aggregate of 0-0 the teams produced another stalemate where neither could find the net. CSKA Sofia managed just 38 percent possession against Qarabağ who held 62 percent and looked more threatening in attack. The halftime score stood at 0-0 with no breakthroughs occurring in the opening period. No red cards disrupted proceedings allowing both sides to maintain their tactical setups until the final whistle. Labeled as the stronger team beforehand CSKA Sofia struggled to impose themselves at home resulting in a notable deviation from anticipated performance levels. The outcome leaves the tie unresolved on aggregate terms.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: CSKA Sofia exhibited a significant structural deviation from pre-match expectations in this encounter.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with overall team performances throughout the match.
  • xG alignment: No xG data was recorded preventing any alignment evaluation between expected and actual outcomes.
  • Market alignment: The final result showed no alignment with market projections for the stronger side.
  • xG expectations: Absence of xG metrics left expectations unquantified in this goalless affair.
  • Event impact: The knockout tie concluded with a 0-0 aggregate after the second leg produced no goals.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were issued resulting in zero distortion to the match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
B. Van Driessche
B. Van Driessche
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
M. Seeldraeyers
M. Seeldraeyers
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Y. De Neve
Y. De Neve
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
K. Van Damme
K. Van Damme
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
CSKA Sofia H. Yanev
H. Yanev
VS
Qarabağ Q. Qurbanov
Q. Qurbanov
2.33
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.33
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Qarabağ Rank: D
Derry City Rank: W
Derry City Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
CSKA Sofia Rank: 63 D
Vestri Rank: W
Vestri Rank: W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home CSKA Sofia
34.49%
Draw
28.92%
Away Qarabağ
36.59%

Movement

Changes since opening
CSKA Sofia
+29.64%
Draw
-61.38%
Qarabağ
+31.74%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
41.11
28.67
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
CSKA Sofia
Qarabağ
Power Score
41.11
28.67
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
CSKA Sofia — Opponent-weighted form score
Qarabağ — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) CSKA Sofia Qarabağ

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

CSKA Sofia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Qarabağ

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

CSKA Sofia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Qarabağ
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
46.97
36.45
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
36.45
46.97
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
CSKA Sofia +0.55 Efficiency Index
vs
Qarabağ -0.55 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
CSKA Sofia
Qarabağ
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

CSKA Sofia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Qarabağ
Created Set-piece attacking threat
CSKA Sofia Qarabağ
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
5.00 5.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
CSKA Sofia Qarabağ
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
5.00 5.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
CSKA Sofia
Qarabağ
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
CSKA Sofia
vs
Qarabağ
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
CSKA Sofia Qarabağ
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
CSKA Sofia 0.10
Qarabağ 0.12
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
CSKA Sofia Qarabağ
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
CSKA Sofia 0.03
Qarabağ 0.04
CSKA Sofia
Qarabağ
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • QAR had peak pressure around 69'.
  • CSK started the game with stronger pressure.
CSK Pressure QAR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: QAR reached the top pressure at 69' (57.78).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

CSKA Sofia CSK Home
1 matches
Qarabağ QAR Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-31T00:05:07+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 30, 2026, 06:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 0 - 0
Stadium
Stadion Bâlgarska Armija
Capacity
22015
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Bram Van Driessche
Michele Seeldraeyers
Yves De Neve
Kevin Van Damme

Statistics

Possession
CSK
45%
QAR
55%

Top Statistics

6 Shots 4
117 Dangerous attacks 132
38 Possession 62
2 Corners 10
15 Free kicks 26
6 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

3 Substitutions 6
22 Throwins 26

Attacking

106 Attacks 135

Discipline

2 Offsides 0
26 Fouls 14

Lineup

Referee : Bram Van Driessche

Starting XI ▼

21
Fedor Lapoukhov
Fedor Lapoukhov Goalkeeper
6.5
2
Pastor
Pastor Defender
6.5
5
Jean-Philippe Gbamin
Jean-Philippe Gbamin Defender
6.5
14
Teodor Ivanov
Teodor Ivanov Defender
6.49
17
Ángelo Martino
Ángelo Martino Defender
6.49
11
Mohamed Brahimi
Mohamed Brahimi
Midfielder99'
6.5
32
Facundo Rodríguez
Facundo Rodríguez Defender
6.5
6
Bruno Jordão
Bruno Jordão (C) Midfielder
6.45
99
James Eto'o
James Eto'o
Midfielder71'
6.45
7
Maks Ebong
Maks Ebong Midfielder
6.5
8
Stefano Sensi
Stefano Sensi Midfielder
6.5
9
Leandro Godoy
Leandro Godoy Attacker
6.46
10
Joël Zwarts
Joël Zwarts
Attacker89'
6.46
28
Ioannis Pittas
Ioannis Pittas Attacker
6.5
Referee : Bram Van Driessche

Starting XI ▼

99
Mateusz Kochalski
Mateusz Kochalski Goalkeeper
6.5
2
Matheus Silva
Matheus Silva Defender
6.5
4
Bence Várkonyi
Bence Várkonyi Defender
6.49
44
Elvin Cafarquliyev Defender
55
Badavi Hüseynov
Badavi Hüseynov (C) Defender
6.5
25
Cebrail Makreckis
Cebrail Makreckis
Midfielder82'
6.5
8
Marko Jankovic
Marko Jankovic Midfielder
6.45
10
Abdellah Zoubir
Abdellah Zoubir Midfielder
6.5
9
Joni Montiel
Joni Montiel
Midfielder90+2'
6.45
20
Kady Borges
Kady Borges Midfielder
6.5
29
Renaldo Cephas
Renaldo Cephas
Attacker70'
6.5
21
Oleksiy Kashchuk
Oleksiy Kashchuk Midfielder
6.5
7
Jaly Mouaddib
Jaly Mouaddib
Midfielder82'
6.5
35
Pedro Bicalho
Pedro Bicalho Midfielder
6.5
11
Zakaria Sawo
Zakaria Sawo Attacker
6.5
22
Musa Qurbanly
Musa Qurbanly
Attacker100'
6.5

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Joël Zwarts
9th Yellowcard
112'
107'
Event
Bruno Langa
Unsportsmanlike conduct / 8th Yellowcard
Event
Teodor Ivanov
Roughing / 7th Yellowcard
105+3'
100'
Event
Musa Qurbanly → Zakaria Sawo
9th Substitution
Event
Mohamed Brahimi → Ángelo Martino
8th Substitution
99'
Event
Ángelo Martino
Roughing / 6th Yellowcard
95'
90+2'
Event
Joni Montiel → Abdellah Zoubir 
7th Substitution
Event
Joël Zwarts → Leandro Godoy
6th Substitution
89'
82'
Event
Bruno Langa → Elvin Cafarquliyev
3rd Substitution
82'
Event
Cebrail Makreckis → Badavi Hüseynov
4th Substitution
82'
Event
Jaly Mouaddib → Oleksiy Kashchuk
5th Substitution
Event
James Eto'o
Holding / 5th Yellowcard
75'
Event
James Eto'o → Bruno Jordão
2nd Substitution
71'
70'
Event
Renaldo Cephas → Kady Borges
1st Substitution
55'
Event
Bence Várkonyi
Roughing / 4th Yellowcard
50'
Event
Marko Jankovic
Roughing / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Leandro Godoy
Unsportsmanlike conduct / 2nd Yellowcard
48'
1ST-HALF
Event
Bruno Jordão
Tripping / 1st Yellowcard
39'
Event
James Eto'o
Scored
10'
9'
Event
Joni Montiel
Scored
Event
Stefano Sensi
Scored
8'
7'
Event
Renaldo Cephas
Scored
Event
Jean-Philippe Gbamin
Scored
6'
5'
Event
Jaly Mouaddib
Scored
Event
Teodor Ivanov
Scored
4'
3'
Event
Matheus Silva
Qarabağ - Miss 3rd Penalty
Event
Ioannis Pittas
Scored
2'
1'
Event
Marko Jankovic
Scored

Match Commentary

125
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Penalty goal scored, making it 4-4.
125
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Penalty goal! Stefano Sensi scores, making it 4-3.
125
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Renaldo Cephas scores, making it 3-3.
125
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Jean-Philippe Gbamin scores, making it 3-2.
125
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Jaly Mouaddib scores, making it 2-2.
125
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Teodor Ivanov scores, making it 2-1.
125
Update Update
Penalty miss by Matheus Silva. The match remains 1-1.
125
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Penalty goal! Ioannis Pittas scores, making it 1-1.
125
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Penalty goal! Marko Jankovic scores, making it 0-1.
115
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
112
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Joel Zwarts.
106
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Bruno Alberto Langa receives a yellow card.
105
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Teodor Ivanov receives a yellow card.
100
Update Update
Musa Qurbanly is on, and Zakaria Sawo is off.
99
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Mohamed Brahimi comes on for Angelo Martino.
95
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Angelo Martino.
90
Update Update
Jonatan Montiel Caballero is on, and Abdellah Zoubir is off.
89
Update Update
On comes Joel Zwarts, off goes Santiago Leandro Godoy.
85
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
82
Substitution Substitution
Jaly Mouaddib is substituted for Oleksii Kashchuk.
82
Update Update
Bruno Alberto Langa is on, and Elvin Dzhafarquliyev is off.
82
Update Update
Cebrail Makreckis is on, and Badavi Huseynov is off.
70
Update Update
On Renaldo Cephas, off Kady Iuri Borges Malinowski.
69
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
66
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
64
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
55
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Bence Varkonyi.
50
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Marko Jankovic receives a yellow card.
48
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Santiago Leandro Godoy receives a yellow card.
44
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
39
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Bruno Jordao receives a yellow card.
18
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
17
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
17
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
14
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
10
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
8
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Bram Van Driessche.

CONCLUSION

Following this goalless second leg the aggregate remains deadlocked at 0-0 prompting further resolution in extra time or penalties if applicable under competition rules. Qarabağ demonstrated superior ball control yet lacked the finishing touch to secure an away victory. CSKA Sofia defended resolutely but failed to create sufficient opportunities despite their favored status. The lack of goals across both legs underscores the defensive solidity displayed by both outfits in this matchup. Efficiency metrics aligned closely with observed patterns without notable shifts in performance output. This draw highlights the challenges of breaking down organized defenses in high-stakes knockout scenarios where possession dominance does not always translate to scoring success. Overall the contest reflected a balanced affair that tested both teams tactical discipline and resilience over the full duration.