Zrinjski vs Valur preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Stadion Bijeli Brijeg
Europa Conference League
ZrinjskiZRI
2 – 2
ValurVAL
Full Time
2nd Qualifying Round Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 2 - 3
Nemanja Bilbija  - 11' (P)
Matej Sakota - 75'
Goal
|
Goal

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Zrinjski 2–2 Valur. The match ended in a draw. Valur showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 67%–33%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Zrinjski recorded 67 percent possession yet finished level at 2-2.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with available performance metrics.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was unavailable so alignment could not be assessed.
  • Market alignment: The 2-2 draw was not aligned with pre-match market indicators.
  • xG expectations: No expected goals values were available for Zrinjski or Valur.
  • Event impact: The 2-2 scoreline produced a 2-3 aggregate result for the tie.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred so match dynamics faced no such distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Aptsiauri
A. Aptsiauri
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
D. Chigogidze
D. Chigogidze
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Z. Bliadze
Z. Bliadze
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
T. Samsonashvili
T. Samsonashvili
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Zrinjski S. Rožman
S. Rožman
VS
Valur C. Brazell
C. Brazell
0.33
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
3
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Valur Rank: L
Crystal Palace Rank: 88 L
Crystal Palace Rank: 88 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Zrinjski Rank: 59 W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Zrinjski
76.96%
Draw
15.59%
Away Valur
7.44%

Movement

Changes since opening
Zrinjski
+68.53%
Draw
-72.78%
Valur
+4.24%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
14.2
50
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Zrinjski
Valur
Power Score
14.2
50
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Zrinjski — Opponent-weighted form score
Valur — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Zrinjski Valur

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Zrinjski

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Valur

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Zrinjski ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Valur
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
56.79
15.30
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
15.30
56.79
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Zrinjski +3.22 Efficiency Index
vs
Valur -3.22 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Zrinjski
Valur
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Zrinjski ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Valur
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Zrinjski Valur
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Zrinjski Valur
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Zrinjski
Valur
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Zrinjski
vs
Valur
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Zrinjski Valur
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Zrinjski 0.26
Valur 0.19
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Zrinjski Valur
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Zrinjski 0.10
Valur 0.02
Zrinjski
Valur
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ZRI had peak pressure around 63'.
  • ZRI started the game with stronger pressure.
ZRI Pressure VAL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ZRI reached the top pressure at 63' (56.50).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Zrinjski ZRI Home
1 matches
Valur VAL Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
0
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-31T00:06:19+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-1-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 2 - 3
Stadium
Stadion Bijeli Brijeg
Capacity
20000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Aleko Aptsiauri
Davit Chigogidze
Zviad Bliadze
Tsotne Samsonashvili

Statistics

Possession
ZRI
72%
VAL
28%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
13 Shots 1
121 Dangerous attacks 21
67 Possession 33
8 Corners 1
7 Free kicks 14
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

2 Penalties 0
5 Substitutions 5
35 Throwins 18

Attacking

183 Attacks 82

Discipline

3 Offsides 0
12 Fouls 10

Lineup

Referee : Aleko Aptsiauri

Starting XI ▼

31
Zvonimir Subaric
Zvonimir Subaric Goalkeeper
5.88
4
Hrvoje Barisic
Hrvoje Barisic Defender
6.05
15
Karlo Stapic
Karlo Stapic Defender
6.05
12
Petar Mamic
Petar Mamic
Defender46'
6.5
21
Viktor Grbic
Viktor Grbic Defender
6.05
27
Slobodan Jakovljevic
Slobodan Jakovljevic Defender
6.05
10
Mario Cuic
Mario Cuic Midfielder
6.27
11
Tomi Juric
Tomi Juric
Attacker59'
6.5
17
Antonio Ilic
Antonio Ilic Midfielder
6.27
77
Karlo Abramovic
Karlo Abramovic
Midfielder46'
6.45
20
Antonio Ivancic
Antonio Ivancic Midfielder
6.27
25
Mario Cuze
Mario Cuze Midfielder
6.27
14
Matej Sakota
Matej Sakota
Midfielder74'
6.69
42
Marijan Cavar
Marijan Cavar Midfielder
6.27
5
Dan Lagumdzija
Dan Lagumdzija
Midfielder59'
6.5
99
Nemanja Bilbija
Nemanja Bilbija (C) Attacker
6.32
Referee : Aleko Aptsiauri

Starting XI ▼

18
Frederik Schram
Frederik Schram Goalkeeper
5.88
4
Markus Nakkim
Markus Nakkim Defender
6.05
15
Hólmar Örn Eyjólfsson
Hólmar Örn Eyjólfsson (C) Defender
6.05
24
Myles Veldman
Myles Veldman Defender
6.04
8
Jónatan Ingi Jónsson
Jónatan Ingi Jónsson Midfielder
6.27
11
Ingimar Torbjörnsson Stöle
Ingimar Torbjörnsson Stöle
Defender90+2'
12
Tryggvi Hrafn Haraldsson
Tryggvi Hrafn Haraldsson Midfielder
2
6.93
14
Albin Skoglund
Albin Skoglund Midfielder
6.37
5
Kristófer Dagur Arnarsson
Kristófer Dagur Arnarsson
Midfielder74'
6.37
17
Lúkas Logi Heimisson
Lúkas Logi Heimisson Midfielder
6.27
6
Bjarni Mark Antonsson Duffield
Bjarni Mark Antonsson Duffield
Midfielder75'
6.5
22
Birkir Heimisson
Birkir Heimisson Midfielder
6.27
21
Jakob Pálsson
Jakob Pálsson
Defender82'
6.5
28
Samúel Fridjónsson
Samúel Fridjónsson Midfielder
6.27
9
Patrick Pedersen
Patrick Pedersen Attacker
6.78
19
Dagur Orri Gardarson
Dagur Orri Gardarson
Attacker46'
6.46

Events

2ND-HALF
90+6'
Event
Myles Veldman
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
90+2'
Event
Ingimar Torbjörnsson Stöle → Jónatan Ingi Jónsson
10th Substitution
Event
Nemanja Bilbija 
Goalkeeper save
88'
82'
Event
Jakob Pálsson → Birkir Heimisson
9th Substitution
Event
Matej Sakota
Field Goal / 3rd Goal
75'
75'
Event
Bjarni Mark Antonsson Duffield → Lúkas Logi Heimisson
8th Substitution
Event
Matej Sakota → Mario Cuze
7th Substitution
74'
74'
Event
Kristófer Dagur Arnarsson → Albin Skoglund
6th Substitution
Event
Karlo Abramovic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
65'
Event
Tomi Juric → Mario Cuic
4th Substitution
59'
Event
Dan Lagumdzija → Marijan Cavar
5th Substitution
59'
Event
Karlo Abramovic → Antonio Ilic
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Petar Mamic → Karlo Stapic
3rd Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Dagur Orri Gardarson → Patrick Pedersen
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+2'
Event
Tryggvi Hrafn Haraldsson
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
44'
Event
Tryggvi Hrafn Haraldsson
Field Goal / 1st Goal
Event
Nemanja Bilbija 
Penalty / 1st Penalty
11'

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
90
Update Update
Ingimar Torbjornsson Stole comes on for Jonatan Ingi Jonsson.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
89
Attempt Attempt
Penalty saved! Nemanja Bilbija's attempt is stopped.
85
Attempt Attempt
Penalty saved! Nemanja Bilbija's attempt is unsuccessful.
84
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
81
Substitution Substitution
Jakob Franz Palsson is substituted off for Birkir Heimisson.
76
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Matej Sakota scores to make it 2-2.
75
Update Update
Bjarni Mark Antonsson is on, and Lukas Logi Heimisson is off.
74
Update Update
Kristofer Dagur Arnarsson comes on for Albin Skoglund.
74
Update Update
Matej Sakota comes on for Mario Cuze.
65
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
63
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
63
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
62
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
60
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
59
Update Update
Tomi Juric is on, and Mario Cuic is off.
59
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
46
Update Update
Dagur Gardarson is on, and Patrick Pedersen is off.
46
Update Update
Karlo Abramovic replaces Antonio Ilic.
46
Update Update
Petar Mamic comes on for Karlo Stapic.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Tryggvi Hrafn Haraldsson scores, making it 1-2.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
44
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-1.
34
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
11
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's a penalty, and the score is now 1-0.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is A. Aptsiauri.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Zrinjski 2-2 Valur. Structural assessment: Valur exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.