Dukagjini vs Lugano preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Stadiumi 18 Qershori Wed, 29 Jul - 2:30 PM
Europa Conference League
DukagjiniDukagjini
1 5
LuganoLUGA
Full Time Wed, 29 Jul 2:30 PM
2nd Qualifying Round Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 1 - 6
Meris Maliqi - 10'
Goal
|
Goal
Kevin Behrens - 6', 36', 58'
Egzon Sinani - 51' (Own Goal)

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Dukagjini 1–5 Lugano. The result saw Lugano take the points. Lugano showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. xG finished Dukagjini 1.1 – 3.5 Lugano. Possession was 37%–63%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Dukagjini 1-5 Lugano. Lugano showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
K. Roucek
K. Roucek
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
L. Machač
L. Machač
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
M. Vlček
M. Vlček
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
P. Orel
P. Orel
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Dukagjini A. Thaçi
A. Thaçi
VS
Lugano M. Croci-Torti
M. Croci-Torti
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
3
0 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lugano Rank: 68 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dukagjini Rank: 55 W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Dukagjini
14.43%
Draw
21.54%
Away Lugano
64.03%

Movement

Changes since opening
Dukagjini
+12.54%
Draw
+19.65%
Lugano
-32.2%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
55.08
69.98
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Dukagjini
Lugano
Power Score
55.08
69.98
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
708
263

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Dukagjini — Opponent-weighted form score
Lugano — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Dukagjini Lugano

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Dukagjini

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Lugano

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Dukagjini ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lugano
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
29.05
26.19
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.19
29.05
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Dukagjini +0.27 Efficiency Index
vs
Lugano -0.27 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Dukagjini
Lugano
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Dukagjini
vs
Lugano
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Dukagjini Lugano
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
24%
8%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.26 vs -0.28
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Dukagjini Lugano
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
8%
24%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.28 vs -0.26
Dukagjini
Lugano
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Dukagjini
vs
Lugano
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Dukagjini Lugano
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Dukagjini 0.26
Lugano 0.13
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Dukagjini Lugano
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Dukagjini 0.06
Lugano 0.03
Dukagjini
Lugano
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • LUGA had peak pressure around 69'.
  • LUGA started the game with stronger pressure.
Dukagjini Pressure LUGA Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: LUGA reached the top pressure at 69' (80.68).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Dukagjini Dukagjini Home
1 matches
Lugano LUGA Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
0
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0.79
xG
2.54
2.54
xGA
0.79

Data last updated: 2026-07-30T00:00:47+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 3-1-4-2
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 29, 2026, 02:30 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 1 - 6
Stadium
Stadiumi 18 Qershori
Capacity
1000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Karel Roucek
Lukáš Machač
Matěj Vlček
Pavel Orel

Statistics

Possession
Dukagjini
40%
LUGA
60%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 5
2 Big Chances Created 4
5 Shots 4
35 Dangerous attacks 90
37 Possession 63
1 Corners 5
16 Free kicks 16

Match Overview

6 Goal Kicks 7
5 Substitutions 5
11 Throwins 22
0 Hit Woodwork 1
0 Assists 3
17 Dribble Attempts 11
7 Successful Dribbles 5
41 Successful Dribbles Percentage 45

Attacking

113 Attacks 153
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

46 Long Passes 31
288 Passes 499
229 Successful Passes 442
80 Successful Passes Percentage 89
26 Successful Long Passes 14
57 Successful Long Passes Percentage 45

Defensive

3 Saves 3
14 Tackles 14
11 Interceptions 11

Build-up

6 Total Crosses 15
2 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

0 Offsides 2
16 Fouls 16

Lineup

Referee : Karel Roucek

Starting XI ▼

1
Egzon Lekaj
Egzon Lekaj Goalkeeper
5.81
5
Elton Basri
Elton Basri (C) Defender
6.01
14
Egzon Sinani
Egzon Sinani Defender
5.24
33
Luan
Luan
Defender65'
6.57
44
Tun Bardhoku
Tun Bardhoku Defender
6.23
22
Arber Bytyqi
Arber Bytyqi
Defender46'
5.92
77
Vitor Hugo
Vitor Hugo Defender
6.06
8
Kushtrim Gashi
Kushtrim Gashi Midfielder
6.43
10
Altin Merlaku
Altin Merlaku Midfielder
6.27
7
Granit Elezaj
Granit Elezaj
Attacker46'
6.38
17
Mergim Pefqeli
Mergim Pefqeli Midfielder
6.23
47
Dienit Isufi
Dienit Isufi Attacker
7.11
9
Kron Thaci
Kron Thaci
Attacker65'
6.47
98
Meris Maliqi
Meris Maliqi Attacker
7.02
99
Stevenson Jeudi
Stevenson Jeudi Attacker
6.36
23
Iljasa Zulfiu
Iljasa Zulfiu
Attacker56'
6.47
Referee : Karel Roucek

Starting XI ▼

16
David von Ballmoos
David von Ballmoos Goalkeeper
6.53
6
Antonios Papadopoulos
Antonios Papadopoulos Defender
7.12
17
Lukas Mai
Lukas Mai Defender
6.19
4
Damian Kelvin
Damian Kelvin
Defender62'
6.7
18
Joel Bichsel
Joel Bichsel Defender
6.66
8
Anto Grgic
Anto Grgic Midfielder
6.74
21
Yanis Cimignani
Yanis Cimignani Midfielder
6.84
25
Uran Bislimi
Uran Bislimi Midfielder
7.5
23
Gjan Ajdin
Gjan Ajdin
Midfielder71'
6.66
27
Daniel Dos Santos
Daniel Dos Santos Midfielder
7.45
22
Beckham Castro
Beckham Castro
Attacker75'
6.75
46
Mattia Zanotti
Mattia Zanotti Midfielder
6.95
11
Renato Steffen
Renato Steffen (C) Attacker
6.79
30
Dereck Moncada
Dereck Moncada
Attacker63'
6.77
91
Kevin Behrens
Kevin Behrens Attacker
3
9.03
24
Elias Pihlström
Elias Pihlström
Attacker62'
6.78

Events

2ND-HALF
75'
Event
Beckham Castro → Daniel Dos Santos 
10th Substitution
71'
Event
Gjan Ajdin → Uran Bislimi
9th Substitution
Event
Luan → Egzon Sinani
7th Substitution
65'
Event
Kron Thaci → Dienit Isufi
8th Substitution
65'
63'
Event
Dereck Moncada → Renato Steffen
6th Substitution
62'
Event
Damian Kelvin → Lukas Mai
4th Substitution
62'
Event
Elias Pihlström → Kevin Behrens
5th Substitution
58'
Event
Kevin Behrens
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
Event
Iljasa Zulfiu → Stevenson Jeudi
3rd Substitution
56'
51'
Event
Egzon Sinani
Right foot shot / 1st Own Goal
Event
Arber Bytyqi → Tun Bardhoku
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Granit Elezaj → Altin Merlaku
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
36'
Event
Kevin Behrens
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Meris Maliqi
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
10'
9'
Event
Daniel Dos Santos 
Header / 2nd Goal
6'
Event
Kevin Behrens
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Elias Pihlstrom takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Attempt Attempt
Beckham Castro takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
89
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
88
Attempt Attempt
Yanis Cimignani takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
81
Attempt Attempt
Vitor Hugo takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
75
Update Update
Beckham Castro comes on for Daniel dos Santos Barros.
71
Update Update
On Gjan Ajdin, off Uran Bislimi.
68
Attempt Attempt
Dereck Moncada takes a right-footed shot but misses.
67
Attempt Attempt
Yanis Cimignani takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
65
Update Update
Luan Leite da Silva comes on for Egzon Sinani.
65
Update Update
Kron Thaci is on, and Dienit Isufi is off.
63
Update Update
Dereck Moncada comes on for Renato Steffen.
62
Update Update
Elias Pihlstrom replaces Kevin Behrens.
62
Update Update
Damian Kelvin replaces Lars Lukas Mai.
61
Attempt Attempt
Mergim Pefqeli takes a right-footed shot but misses.
58
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Kevin Behrens scores, making it 1-5, assisted by Uran Bislimi.
58
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-5.
56
Update Update
On Iljasa Zulfiu comes on, off goes Stevenson Jeudi.
51
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot by Egzon Sinani results in an own goal.
51
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! An own goal by Egzon Sinani makes it 1-4.
51
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-4.
48
Attempt Attempt
Meris Maliqi takes a left-footed shot but misses.
46
Update Update
On for Arber Bytyqi, off goes Tun Bardhoku.
46
Update Update
Granit Elezaj comes on for Altin Merlaku.
43
Attempt Attempt
Stevenson Jeudi attempts a shot with another body part but misses.
43
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
42
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
36
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Kevin Behrens takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
36
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Kevin Behrens scores, making it 1-3.
27
Attempt Attempt
Daniel dos Santos Barros takes a left-footed shot but misses.
27
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
25
Attempt Attempt
Renato Steffen takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
23
Attempt Attempt
Altin Merlaku takes a shot with his head but misses.
20
Attempt Attempt
Mergim Pefqeli takes a right-footed shot but misses.
10
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Meris Maliqi with his left foot finds the back of the net.
10
Attempt Attempt
Shot from Meris Maliqi with his left foot finds the back of the net.
10
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-2.
9
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot on goal! Daniel dos Santos Barros heads it in for a goal.
9
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-2.
6
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Kevin Behrens takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
6
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Kevin Behrens scores to make it 0-1.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Karel Roucek.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Dukagjini 1-5 Lugano. Structural assessment: Lugano exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.