Hearts vs Sturm Graz preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Champions League, Europe
Tynecastle Park Today - 6:45 PM
Champions League
Hearts HEA
Sturm Graz STU
KICKOFF : Today - 6:45 PM
2nd Qualifying Round Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 0 - 4

CONTEXT

Hearts welcome Sturm Graz to Tynecastle Park for the second leg of their Champions League second qualifying round tie. The home side trail 0-4 on aggregate after a heavy first-leg defeat and must produce a significant response to keep their European hopes alive. Power ratings give Hearts a narrow edge at 75.4 to 73.75, yet the visitors carry stronger recent form with a score of 50 against the hosts' unavailable data. Both clubs operate without domestic league positions or detailed records for this international cup fixture. Set-piece and efficiency information is limited, relying on proxy values that carry low confidence. The encounter therefore hinges on whether Hearts can exploit home conditions and any structural familiarity to overcome the deficit, while Sturm Graz look to manage the game and protect their advantage.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Hearts hold a slight power advantage of 1.7 points over Sturm Graz.
  • Form: Sturm Graz enter with a form score of 50 while Hearts have no recent form data available.
  • Squad: Both teams have limited squad information disclosed for this encounter.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data remains unavailable for analysis in this match.
  • Transition: Transition play details are not specified in the current dataset.
  • Set pieces: Set piece metrics show low confidence with proxy data used for both sides.
  • xVariable: The power scores indicate Hearts at 75.4 and Sturm Graz at 73.75.
  • Market: Projection split: Hearts 51.6% (Δ+0%) | Draw 23% (Δ+0%) | Sturm Graz 25.4% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Hearts W. Vrancken
W. Vrancken
VS
Sturm Graz F. Ingolitsch
F. Ingolitsch
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
3
0 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sturm Graz Rank: 71 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hearts Rank: 76 W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Hearts
51.63%
Draw
23.01%
Away Sturm Graz
25.36%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
75.4
73.75
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Hearts
Sturm Graz
Power Score
75.4
73.75
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
143
174

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

vs
Hearts Opponent-weighted form score
Sturm Graz Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hearts Sturm Graz

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Hearts HEA Home
1 matches
Sturm Graz STU Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
0
-4
Goal Difference
+4
Expected Goals
1.43
xG
2.77
2.77
xGA
1.43

Data last updated: 2026-07-27T00:08:12+00:00

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 28, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Champions League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 0 - 4
Stadium
Tynecastle Park
Capacity
20099
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Squad

Squad

30
Ryan Fulton
Ryan Fulton Goalkeeper
25
Alexander Schwolow
Alexander Schwolow Goalkeeper
28
Zander Clark
Zander Clark Goalkeeper
1
Beau Reus
Beau Reus Goalkeeper
3
Stephen Kingsley
Stephen Kingsley Defender
17
Stuart Findlay
Stuart Findlay Defender
5
Jamie Mccart
Jamie Mccart Defender
4
Craig Halkett
Craig Halkett Defender
18
Harry Milne
Harry Milne Defender
2
Christian Dahle Borchgrevink
Christian Dahle Borchgrevink Defender
64
Malachi Fagan-Walcott
Malachi Fagan-Walcott Defender
32
Adam Forrester
Adam Forrester Defender
24
Michael-John Kamson-Kamara
Michael-John Kamson-Kamara Defender
23
Jordi Altena
Jordi Altena Defender
16
Blair Spittal
Blair Spittal Midfielder
7
Calvin Miller
Calvin Miller Midfielder
27
Sander Erik Kartum
Sander Erik Kartum Midfielder
12
Tom Renaud
Tom Renaud Midfielder
31
Yan Dhanda
Yan Dhanda Midfielder
22
Tómas Bent Magnússon
Tómas Bent Magnússon Midfielder
6
Oisin McEntee
Oisin McEntee Midfielder
33
Finlay Pollock
Finlay Pollock Midfielder
8
Eduardo Ageu Almeida Santos
Eduardo Ageu Almeida Santos Midfielder
20
Elton Daniël Kabangu
Elton Daniël Kabangu Attacker
77
Amadou Ba-Sy
Amadou Ba-Sy Attacker
11
Pierre Landry Kabore
Pierre Landry Kabore Attacker
15
Joshua McPake
Joshua McPake Attacker
89
Alexandros Kiziridis
Alexandros Kiziridis Attacker
10
Cláudio Rafael Soares Braga
Cláudio Rafael Soares Braga Attacker
19
Severin Sabri Guendouz
Severin Sabri Guendouz Attacker
74
Rogers Mato
Rogers Mato Attacker
21
James Wilson
James Wilson Attacker
29
Sabah Kerjota
Sabah Kerjota Attacker

Squad

22
Ammar Helac
Ammar Helac Goalkeeper
53
Daniil Khudyakov
Daniil Khudyakov Goalkeeper
41
Elias Lorenz
Elias Lorenz Goalkeeper
5
Albert Vallci
Albert Vallci Defender
35
Niklas Geyrhofer
Niklas Geyrhofer Defender
30
Paul-Friedrich Koller
Paul-Friedrich Koller Defender
2
Jeyland Mitchell
Jeyland Mitchell Defender
23
Arjan Malic
Arjan Malic Defender
18
Emran Gamal Marwan Soglo
Emran Gamal Marwan Soglo Defender
21
Petar Petrović
Petar Petrović Defender
4
Jon Gorenc Stankovič
Jon Gorenc Stankovič Midfielder
10
Otar Kiteishvili
Otar Kiteishvili Midfielder
28
Jürgen Heil
Jürgen Heil Midfielder
80
Ryan Fosso
Ryan Fosso Midfielder
15
Gizo Mamageishvili
Gizo Mamageishvili Midfielder
19
Simon Seidl
Simon Seidl Midfielder
43
Jacob Peter Hödl
Jacob Peter Hödl Midfielder
8
Filip Jan Rózga
Filip Jan Rózga Midfielder
39
Luca Weinhandl
Luca Weinhandl Midfielder
77
Maurice Malone
Maurice Malone Attacker
20
Seedy Jatta
Seedy Jatta Attacker
17
Szymon Włodarczyk
Szymon Włodarczyk Attacker
26
Belmin Beganovic
Belmin Beganovic Attacker
32
Peter Kiedl
Peter Kiedl Attacker
44
Nelson Felix Patrick Weiper
Nelson Felix Patrick Weiper Attacker
9
Leon Grgic
Leon Grgic Attacker
11
Axel Kayombo
Axel Kayombo Attacker
36
Amady Camara
Amady Camara Attacker

CONCLUSION

Hearts face a demanding task at home as they attempt to reverse a four-goal deficit against a disciplined Sturm Graz side. The narrow power edge and home venue provide some platform for a response, yet the absence of recent form data for the hosts adds uncertainty to their approach. Sturm Graz can draw on better recent indicators and will likely prioritise control and defensive organisation to see the tie through. Limited efficiency and set-piece insights mean the contest may be decided by broader structural elements and in-game adjustments rather than specialised metrics. Both teams must navigate the second leg with clear tactical discipline if they are to influence the outcome in their favour.