Grêmio vs Fluminense preview
2026 Serie A, Brazil
Arena do Grêmio
Today - 9:30 PM
Serie A
Grêmio
GRE
Fluminense
FLU
KICKOFF :
Today - 9:30 PM
Round 20 ·
Regular Season
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Jul 26
CONTEXT
Grêmio host Fluminense at Arena do Grêmio in a Serie A regular season fixture during the 2026 campaign. The visitors enter as the stronger side according to power metrics, holding a 68.47 rating against the hosts 62.32. League standings reflect this gap with Fluminense positioned fourth while Grêmio sit sixteenth. Form scores also favour the away side at 15.44 compared to 12.39. Both teams operate without recent outing details available for deeper review. Set piece analysis carries low confidence due to absent xG inputs and reliance on proxy data. Overall the match pits a mid-table home side against an upper-table challenger seeking to maintain momentum in domestic competition.
TL;DR
-
Structural: Fluminense hold the higher power score of 68.47 against Grêmio 62.32 in this league encounter.
-
Form: Away form stands at 15.44 while home form registers 12.39 ahead of the fixture.
-
Squad: Fluminense are identified as the stronger team entering the match at Arena do Grêmio.
-
Efficiency: Efficiency metrics remain unavailable for both Grêmio and Fluminense.
-
Transition: No transition phase data is provided for either side in the preview.
-
Set pieces: Set piece analysis shows low confidence with proxy metrics applied to both teams.
-
xVariable: Power advantage of 6.2 points sits with the away side in this regular season game.
-
Market: Baseline split: Grêmio 0% (Δ+0%) | Draw 0% (Δ+0%) | Fluminense 0% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25
vs Team A
Feb 1
vs Team B
Feb 8
vs Team C
L. Ribeiro de Castro
VS
L. Zubeldía
1.11
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
1.68
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Mirassol
Rank: 65
L
Corinthians
Rank: 67
L
Santos
Rank: 63
W
Bahia
Rank: 63
D
Flamengo
Rank: 76
L
Athletico PR
Rank: 64
D
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bragantino
Rank: 64
D
Cruzeiro
Rank: 68
D
Mirassol
Rank: 66
L
São Paulo
Rank: 62
W
Vitória
Rank: 63
D
Internacional
Rank: 63
L
1
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 3
3
No sidelined player data available.
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Grêmio
0%
Draw
0%
Fluminense
0%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
62.32
68.47
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Grêmio
Fluminense
Power Score
62.32
68.47
League Position
16
4
Global Rank
475
292
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Grêmio
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Fluminense
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Grêmio Fluminense
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Grêmio
GRE
Home
5
matches
Fluminense
FLU
Away
Match Record
1
Wins
3
1
Draws
1
3
Losses
1
Goals
5
Goals Scored
7
7
Goals Conceded
5
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0
Data last updated: 2026-07-26T00:09:48+00:00
STARTING XI - EXPECTED
Match Formation
4-2-3-1
Match Formation
4-2-3-1
1 W. Pereira da Silva
7 C. Pavón
6 G. Martins de Souza Santos
4 W. Kannemann
54 P. Crisostomo Pinheiro
20 M. Villasanti Rolón
5 J. Nardoni
21 Tetê
37 G. Ferreira de Carvalho
9 F. Amuzu
95 C. Alves Morais
1 F. Lopes Maciel
6 R. Rodrigues Martins
22 J. Freytes
3 T. da Silva
23 C. Rodrigues Gomes
8 M. Martinelli
35 H. Pereira do Nascimento
11 J. Savarino Quintero
32 L. Acosta
17 A. Canobbio Graviz
7 G. Vieira de Souza
General Information
Date & Time
Jul 26, 2026, 09:30 PM
Competition
2026 Serie A, Brazil · Round 20 · Regular Season
Stadium
Arena do Grêmio
Capacity
60540
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Edina Alves Batista
Neuza Ines Back
Fabrini Bevilaqua Costa
Bruno Pereira Vasconcelos
Next Match
Grêmio
vs
São Paulo
League: Serie A
Kickoff: Sat, 8 Aug - 7:00 PM
Venue: Arena do Grêmio
Fluminense
vs
Bahia
League: Serie A
Kickoff: Thu, 30 Jul - 12:30 AM
Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho
Expected Lineup
Referee :
Edina Alves Batista
Manager ▼
L. Ribeiro de Castro
Coach
Starting XI ▼
1
Weverton
Goalkeeper
6.97 95
Carlos Vinícius
Centre Forward
6.95 4
Walter Kannemann
Left Back
6.15 5
Juan Nardoni
Defensive Midfield
6.68 6
Gustavo Martins
Right Back
6.98 7
Cristian Pavón
Right Back
7.19 20
Mathías Villasanti
Defensive Midfield
6.6 21
Tetê
Right Wing
6.83 37
Gabriel Mec
Attacking Midfield
6.64 54
Pedro Gabriel
Left Back
6.65 9
Francis Amuzu
Left Wing
6.87 Substitutes ▼
2
Fabián Balbuena
6.64 3
Wagner Leonardo
6.55 10
Willian
6.64 11
Miguel Monsalve
6.48 12
Gabriel Grando
6.94 14
Marcos Rocha
6.42 17
Dodi
6.46 19
Erick Noriega
6.98 43
Lucas Milla
22
Martin Braithwaite
6.55 99
José Enamorado
6.6 38
Caio Paulista
6.57
Referee :
Edina Alves Batista
Manager ▼
L. Zubeldía
Coach
Starting XI ▼
1
Fábio
Goalkeeper
6.86 7
Hulk
Centre Forward
6.93 6
Renê
Left Back
7.09 8
Martinelli
Defensive Midfield
7.04 22
Juan Pablo Freytes
Left Back
6.9 23
Guga
Right Back
6.85 32
Luciano Acosta
Attacking Midfield
7.33 35
Hércules
Defensive Midfield
6.92 11
Jefferson Savarino
Left Wing
7.21 17
Agustín Canobbio
Right Wing
7.05 3
Thiago Silva
Right Back
7.04 Substitutes ▼
94
Otávio
6.6 2
Samuel Xavier
6.78 13
Guilherme Arana
6.96 14
Germán Cano
6.53 16
Nonato
7.13 19
Rodrigo Castillo
6.85 27
Marcelo Pitaluga
6.5 30
Yeferson Soteldo
6.71 46
Julio Fidelis
6.96 4
Ignácio
6.92 90
Kevin Serna
6.71 CONCLUSION
Fluminense arrive with superior structural metrics and league position that suggest they will control proceedings at Arena do Grêmio. Grêmio must rely on home advantage and defensive organisation to limit the visitors influence. Limited data on efficiency and transitions leaves room for in-game adjustments by both coaches. Set piece uncertainty adds another layer where either side could gain an edge through organisation rather than raw numbers. The overall profile points to a competitive league match where Fluminense hold the clearer platform to secure a positive result while Grêmio look to exploit any lapses in concentration from the higher placed opponent.
