Palmeiras vs Atlético Mineiro preview

Brazil flag 2026 Serie A, Brazil
Allianz Parque Today - 10:30 PM
Serie A
Palmeiras PAL
Atlético Mineiro AMN
KICKOFF : Today - 10:30 PM
Round 20 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Palmeiras host Atlético Mineiro in Serie A (Regular Season) at Allianz Parque. Domestically, Palmeiras sit 1th in the table while Atlético Mineiro are 13th. Power ranking favours Palmeiras by 13.2 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Palmeiras hold a +13.2 pts power-ranking advantage heading into this fixture.
  • Form: Palmeiras are in line with baseline; recent form is evenly matched.
  • Squad: No major squad or availability edge; impact is neutral.
  • Efficiency: Palmeiras show stronger possession-adjusted chance creation in the data.
  • Transition: Palmeiras have a moderate edge in transition threat.
  • Set pieces: Palmeiras carry higher set-play value and dead-ball upside.
  • xVariable: Palmeiras hold a marginal advantage on underlying metrics.
  • Market: Baseline split: Palmeiras 0% (Δ+0%) | Draw 0% (Δ+0%) | Atlético Mineiro 0% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Palmeiras A. Moreira Ferreira
A. Moreira Ferreira
VS
Atlético Mineiro E. Domínguez
E. Domínguez
2.32
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.32
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Coritiba Rank: 59 W
Chapecoense Rank: 52 W
Flamengo Rank: 76 W
Cruzeiro Rank: 68 D
Remo Rank: 57 D
Santos Rank: 63 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bahia Rank: 62 D
Vasco da Gama Rank: 60 W
Corinthians Rank: 67 L
Mirassol Rank: 66 W
Botafogo Rank: 68 D
Cruzeiro Rank: 68 W
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 1 - 0
0
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Palmeiras
0%
Draw
0%
Away Atlético Mineiro
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
76.9
63.7
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Palmeiras
Atlético Mineiro
Power Score
76.9
63.7
League Position
1
13
Global Rank
112
428

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Palmeiras — Opponent-weighted form score
Atlético Mineiro — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Palmeiras Atlético Mineiro

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Palmeiras PAL Home
5 matches
Atlético Mineiro AMN Away
Match Record
4
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
4
Goals
14
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
14
+9
Goal Difference
-9
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-26T00:10:03+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
C. dos Santos Pereira
1 C. dos Santos Pereira
B. de Lara Fuchs
3 B. de Lara Fuchs
G. Gómez Portillo
15 G. Gómez Portillo
M. Cerqueira Paim
26 M. Cerqueira Paim
A. Giay
4 A. Giay
A. Hoelgebaum Pereira
8 A. Hoelgebaum Pereira
M. Rodrigues Freitas
17 M. Rodrigues Freitas
J. Piquerez Moreira
22 J. Piquerez Moreira
M. Magalhães Prado
18 M. Magalhães Prado
J. Arias Andrade
11 J. Arias Andrade
V. Roque Ferreira
9 V. Roque Ferreira
E. Marques Pires
22 E. Marques Pires
R. Lodi dos Santos
16 R. Lodi dos Santos
L. Silveira Neves Vojnović
13 L. Silveira Neves Vojnović
R. Tressoldi Netto
4 R. Tressoldi Netto
Natanael
2 Natanael
V. Gomes Silva
30 V. Gomes Silva
T. Pérez
25 T. Pérez
M. de Andrade Barberan
8 M. de Andrade Barberan
B. Anício Caldeira Duarte
11 B. Anício Caldeira Duarte
Z. Cassierra Cabezas
9 Z. Cassierra Cabezas
T. Cuello
28 T. Cuello

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 26, 2026, 10:30 PM
Competition
2026 Serie A, Brazil · Round 20 · Regular Season
Stadium
Allianz Parque
Capacity
43713
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Bruno Arleu de Araujo
Thiago Henrique Neto Correa Farinha
Luiz Claudio Regazzone
Marcos Sousa

Expected Lineup

Referee : Bruno Arleu de Araujo

Starting XI ▼

1
Carlos Miguel
Carlos Miguel Goalkeeper
7.08
22
Joaquín Piquerez
Joaquín Piquerez Midfielder
6.94
11
Jhon Arias
Jhon Arias Midfielder
7.02
18
Mauricio
Mauricio Midfielder
6.9
4
Agustín Giay
Agustín Giay Midfielder
6.81
9
Vitor Roque
Vitor Roque Centre Forward
7.12
15
Gustavo Gómez
Gustavo Gómez Centre Back
7.03
8
Andreas Pereira
Andreas Pereira Central Midfield
7.24
17
Marlon Freitas
Marlon Freitas Central Midfield
7.11
26
Murilo
Murilo Left Back
6.88
3
Bruno Fuchs
Bruno Fuchs Right Back
6.9
Referee : Bruno Arleu de Araujo

Starting XI ▼

22
Everson
Everson Goalkeeper
6.96
9
Mateo Cassierra
Mateo Cassierra Centre Forward
6.69
11
Bernard
Bernard Attacker
6.75
28
Tomás Cuello
Tomás Cuello Attacker
6.97
13
Lyanco
Lyanco Left Back
6.97
30
Victor Hugo
Victor Hugo Central Midfield
7
8
Maycon
Maycon Central Midfield
6.86
4
Ruan
Ruan Right Back
6.93
2
Natanael
Natanael Right Back
6.63
25
Tomás Pérez
Tomás Pérez Central Midfield
6.66
16
Renan Lodi
Renan Lodi Left Back
6.99

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Palmeiras holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Palmeiras a 13.2-point edge. Projection probabilities are unavailable or insufficient in the available data for this fixture. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.