Neftçi vs Dinamo Minsk preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Türk Hava Yolları Futbol Mərkəzi IV meydança
Europa Conference League
NeftçiNEFT3
2 4
Dinamo MinskDIN
Full Time
2nd Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
Aleksandr Selyava - 8' (Own Goal)
Goal
|
Goal
Karen Vardanyan - 36', 57'
G. Alykulov - 77'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Neftçi 2–4 Dinamo Minsk. The result saw Dinamo Minsk take the points. Dinamo Minsk showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 56%–44%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Neftçi 2-4 Dinamo Minsk. Dinamo Minsk showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
K. Fellas
K. Fellas
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
M. Kaloyirou
M. Kaloyirou
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
G. Charalambous
G. Charalambous
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
K. Neofytou
K. Neofytou
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Neftçi Y. Vernydub
Y. Vernydub
VS
Dinamo Minsk A. Shagojko
A. Shagojko
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.5
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sileks Rank: W
Sileks Rank: L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Neftçi
50.8%
Draw
29.07%
Away Dinamo Minsk
20.14%

Movement

Changes since opening
Neftçi
+49.84%
Draw
+27.17%
Dinamo Minsk
-76.99%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
50
27.78
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Neftçi
Dinamo Minsk
Power Score
50
27.78
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Neftçi — Opponent-weighted form score
Dinamo Minsk — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Neftçi Dinamo Minsk

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Neftçi

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Dinamo Minsk

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Neftçi ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dinamo Minsk
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.32
24.55
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
24.55
27.32
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Neftçi +0.22 Efficiency Index
vs
Dinamo Minsk -0.22 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Neftçi
Dinamo Minsk
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Neftçi ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dinamo Minsk
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Neftçi Dinamo Minsk
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Neftçi Dinamo Minsk
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Neftçi
Dinamo Minsk
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Neftçi
vs
Dinamo Minsk
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Neftçi Dinamo Minsk
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Neftçi 0.18
Dinamo Minsk 0.25
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Neftçi Dinamo Minsk
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Neftçi 0.11
Dinamo Minsk 0.03
Neftçi
Dinamo Minsk
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • NEFT3 had peak pressure around 9'.
  • NEFT3 started the game with stronger pressure.
NEFT3 Pressure DIN Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: NEFT3 reached the top pressure at 9' (82.57).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Türk Hava Yolları Futbol Mərkəzi IV meydança
Capacity
11000
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Konstantinos Fellas
Marios Kaloyirou
Giorgos Charalambous
Konstantinos Neofytou

Statistics

Possession
NEFT3
55%
DIN
45%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 4
7 Shots 1
66 Dangerous attacks 36
56 Possession 44
5 Corners 3
15 Free kicks 10
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

92 Ball Safe 88
0 Penalties 1
11 Goal Attempts 12
5 Substitutions 4
25 Throwins 26
1 Injuries 1

Attacking

86 Attacks 73

Discipline

0 Offsides 2
13 Fouls 10

Lineup

Referee : Konstantinos Fellas

Starting XI ▼

1
Emil Balayev
Emil Balayev Goalkeeper
6.12
93
Rza Cafarov
Rza Cafarov
Goalkeeper46'
5.68
5
Igor Ribeiro
Igor Ribeiro Defender
5.7
24
Moustapha Seck
Moustapha Seck Defender
5.88
3
Rufat Abbasov
Rufat Abbasov
Midfielder60'
6.37
55
Andreaw Gravillon
Andreaw Gravillon Defender
5.7
77
Falaye Sacko
Falaye Sacko Defender
5.69
6
Sessi D'Almeida
Sessi D'Almeida Midfielder
6.18
7
Emil Safarov
Emil Safarov
Midfielder60'
6.37
8
Keiren Westwood
Keiren Westwood (C) Midfielder
6.37
18
Ifeanyi Mathew
Ifeanyi Mathew
Midfielder60'
6.37
11
Imad Faraj
Imad Faraj Midfielder
6.09
20
Gustavo Klismahn
Gustavo Klismahn Midfielder
6.23
33
Breno Almeida
Breno Almeida Midfielder
6.18
97
Bassala Sambou
Bassala Sambou
Attacker66'
6.46
29
Lubomir Tupta
Lubomir Tupta Attacker
6.35
Referee : Konstantinos Fellas

Starting XI ▼

1
Ivan Shimakovich
Ivan Shimakovich Goalkeeper
5.88
12
Aleksey Ivanov
Aleksey Ivanov Defender
6.05
25
Abdoul Aziz Toure
Abdoul Aziz Toure Defender
6.05
24
Aleksey Vakulich
Aleksey Vakulich
Defender90+2'
26
Vladislav Kalinin
Vladislav Kalinin Defender
6.05
44
Gleb Gurban
Gleb Gurban Defender
6.05
7
Evgeniy Malashevich
Evgeniy Malashevich Midfielder
6.84
8
Aleksandr Selyava
Aleksandr Selyava (C) Midfielder
6.09
23
Aleksey Zhechko
Aleksey Zhechko Midfielder
6.27
78
Artem Sokolovskiy
Artem Sokolovskiy
Midfielder59'
6.5
42
Fawaz Abdullahi
Fawaz Abdullahi Midfielder
6.23
10
Karen Vardanyan
Karen Vardanyan Attacker
2
7.33
80
Leonard Chatelin Gweth
Leonard Chatelin Gweth
Attacker73'
6.5
30
Moustapha Djimet
Moustapha Djimet Attacker
6.51
11
G. Alykulov
G. Alykulov
Midfielder73'
6.48

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Aleksey Vakulich → Abdoul Aziz Toure
9th Substitution
77'
Event
G. Alykulov
Field Goal / 5th Goal
77'
Event
G. Alykulov
Goalkeeper save
73'
Event
G. Alykulov → Moustapha Djimet
7th Substitution
73'
Event
Leonard Chatelin Gweth → Karen Vardanyan
8th Substitution
Event
Bassala Sambou → Breno Almeida
6th Substitution
66'
Event
Rufat Abbasov → Moustapha Seck
3rd Substitution
60'
Event
Ifeanyi Mathew → Keiren Westwood
4th Substitution
60'
Event
Emil Safarov → Sessi D'Almeida
5th Substitution
60'
59'
Event
Artem Sokolovskiy → Aleksey Zhechko
2nd Substitution
57'
Event
Karen Vardanyan
Field Goal / 4th Goal
Event
Falaye Sacko
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
54'
47'
Event
Evgeniy Malashevich
Field Goal / 3rd Goal
Event
Rza Cafarov → Emil Balayev
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
45+2'
Event
Fawaz Abdullahi
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
36'
Event
Karen Vardanyan
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
Event
Aleksandr Selyava
Own Goal / 1st Own Goal
8'
Event
Keiren Westwood
Field Goal / 1st Goal
2'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Aleksey Vakulich comes on for Abdoul Aziz Toure.
83
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
76
Attempt Attempt
Penalty saved! Gulzhigit Alykulov's attempt is stopped.
76
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Gulzhigit Alykulov scores, making it 2-4.
76
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! The score is now 2-4.
73
Update Update
Gulzhigit Alykulov is on, and Moustapha Djimet is off.
73
Update Update
Leonard Gweth is on, and Karen Vardanyan is off.
71
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
66
Update Update
Bassala Sambou comes on for Breno Almeida.
61
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
60
Update Update
Emil Safarov is on, and Sessi D'Almeida is off.
60
Update Update
On comes Rüfat Abbasov, off goes Moustapha Seck.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Artem Sokolovskiy comes on for Aleksey Zhechko.
59
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
57
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 2-3.
55
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
54
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Falaye Sacko.
47
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Evgeni Malashevich scores to make it 2-2, assisted by Karen Vardanyan.
46
Update Update
Rza Cafarov is on, and Emil Balayev is off.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Fawaz Abdullahi.
41
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
36
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 2-1.
31
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
8
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! An own goal by Aleksandr Selyava makes it 2-0.
8
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 2-0.
5
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
2
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Emin Mahmudov scores to make it 1-0.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Constantinos Fellas.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Neftçi 2-4 Dinamo Minsk. Structural assessment: Dinamo Minsk exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.