Motherwell vs HB preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Fir Park Today - 6:45 PM
Europa Conference League
Motherwell MOT
HB HB
KICKOFF : Today - 6:45 PM
2nd Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2

CONTEXT

Motherwell host HB in Europa Conference League (2nd Qualifying Round) at Fir Park. Power ranking favours HB by 22.8 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: HB hold a +22.8 pts power-ranking advantage heading into this fixture.
  • Form: Motherwell are in line with baseline; recent form is evenly matched.
  • Squad: No major squad or availability edge; impact is neutral.
  • Efficiency: Motherwell show stronger possession-adjusted chance creation in the data.
  • Transition: HB have a moderate edge in transition threat.
  • Set pieces: HB carry higher set-play value and dead-ball upside.
  • xVariable: HB hold a marginal advantage on underlying metrics.
  • Market: Motherwell 81.6% (Δ+0%) | Draw 13% (Δ+0%) | HB 5.4% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Motherwell A. Johansson
A. Johansson
VS
HB A. Olsen
A. Olsen
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Motherwell
81.58%
Draw
13.01%
Away HB
5.41%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
27.17
50
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Motherwell
HB
Power Score
27.17
50
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Motherwell — Opponent-weighted form score
HB — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Motherwell HB

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Motherwell MOT Home
0 matches
HB HB Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-22T00:11:47+00:00

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 23, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Fir Park
Capacity
13742
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Patryk Gryckiewicz
Marcin Boniek
Bartosz Kaszyński
Paweł Raczkowski

Squad

Referee : Patryk Gryckiewicz

Squad ▼

—
Alexander Noah Paulsen
Alexander Noah Paulsen Goalkeeper
31
Matty Connolly
Matty Connolly Goalkeeper
16
Paul McGinn
Paul McGinn Defender
2
Stephen O'Donnell
Stephen O'Donnell Defender
6
Jordan McGhee
Jordan McGhee Defender
22
John Koutroumbis
John Koutroumbis Defender
45
Mbule Longelo Emmanuel
Mbule Longelo Emmanuel Defender
—
Martin Moormann
Martin Moormann Defender
—
Dylan Willis
Dylan Willis Defender
—
Jake Girdwood-Reich
Jake Girdwood-Reich Defender
—
Ewan Wilson
Ewan Wilson Defender
12
Lukas Fadinger
Lukas Fadinger Midfielder
21
Elijah Henry Just
Elijah Henry Just Midfielder
7
Tom Sparrow
Tom Sparrow Midfielder
18
Oscar Priestman
Oscar Priestman Midfielder
—
Olly Whyte
Olly Whyte Midfielder
77
Regan Charles-Cook
Regan Charles-Cook Attacker
66
Callum Hendry
Callum Hendry Attacker
—
Apostolos Stamatelopoulos
Apostolos Stamatelopoulos Attacker
55
Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise
Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise Attacker
90
Ibrahim Sa’id
Ibrahim Sa’id Attacker
15
Eythor Martin Bjørgolfsson
Eythor Martin Bjørgolfsson Attacker
—
Willy Vogt
Willy Vogt Attacker
28
Luca Ross
Luca Ross Attacker
Referee : Patryk Gryckiewicz

Squad ▼

—
Reinis Reinholds
Reinis Reinholds Goalkeeper
1
Bjarti Vitalis Mørk
Bjarti Vitalis Mørk Goalkeeper
13
Tróndur Sjúrdarson
Tróndur Sjúrdarson Goalkeeper
22
Ári Mohr Jónsson
Ári Mohr Jónsson Defender
17
Bartal Wardum
Bartal Wardum Defender
15
Heri Hjalt Mohr
Heri Hjalt Mohr Defender
3
Per-Magnus Steiring
Per-Magnus Steiring Defender
7
Mathias Voss
Mathias Voss Defender
21
Eivind Restorff Mouritsen
Eivind Restorff Mouritsen Defender
24
Silas Joensen
Silas Joensen Defender
4
Heðin Hansen
Heðin Hansen Midfielder
8
Dan Í Soylu
Dan Í Soylu Midfielder
28
Amidou Diop
Amidou Diop Midfielder
18
Stefan Radosavlevic
Stefan Radosavlevic Midfielder
5
Noah Hans Mneney
Noah Hans Mneney Midfielder
11
Ási Dam
Ási Dam Midfielder
6
Áki Johannesen
Áki Johannesen Midfielder
9
Heini Fossdalsá Sørensen
Heini Fossdalsá Sørensen Midfielder
27
Jógvan Í Skála
Jógvan Í Skála Midfielder
23
Jákup Ludvig Thomsen
Jákup Ludvig Thomsen Attacker
—
Marley Blair
Marley Blair Attacker
20
Moses Ebiye
Moses Ebiye Attacker
—
Mohamed Samba
Mohamed Samba Attacker
25
Storm Even Bugge Pettersen
Storm Even Bugge Pettersen Attacker

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward HB holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give HB a 22.8-point edge. External projection is Motherwell 82.3%, draw 11.5%, and HB 6.2%. That projection profile diverges from the structural signals, so execution is likely to decide the result. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.