Valur vs Zrinjski preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Origovöllurinn
Europa Conference League
ValurVAL
1 0
ZrinjskiZRI
Full Time
2nd Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Valur hosted Zrinjski in the first leg of their two-legged knockout tie. The match ended 1-0 to the home side following a 0-0 halftime score. Valur recorded 43 percent possession while Zrinjski held 57 percent. No red cards were issued to either team. The designated stronger team secured the victory. The result reflected a significant deviation of 70.4 percent with Valur as the deviation team. Efficiency remained in line with projections. The decisive goal occurred in the second half after both sides made adjustments following the interval. Limited scoring opportunities characterized the contest overall.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Valur exhibited a significant deviation of 70.4 percent from pre-match expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift was in line with established patterns for both teams.
  • xG alignment: No xG data was available to determine alignment with the match outcome.
  • Market alignment: The result was not aligned with pre-match indicators.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be assessed due to unavailable metrics.
  • Event impact: The single goal in the second half proved decisive in the 1-0 result.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were shown, resulting in no distortion to the match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Kourgheli
A. Kourgheli
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Y. Khomchenko
Y. Khomchenko
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
V. Getikov
V. Getikov
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Lashuk
A. Lashuk
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Valur C. Brazell
C. Brazell
VS
Zrinjski S. Rožman
S. Rožman
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.5
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Crystal Palace Rank: 87 L
Crystal Palace Rank: 87 D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Valur
29.57%
Draw
27.14%
Away Zrinjski
43.3%

Movement

Changes since opening
Valur
-64.17%
Draw
+21.52%
Zrinjski
+42.67%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
50
16.67
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Valur
Zrinjski
Power Score
50
16.67
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Valur — Opponent-weighted form score
Zrinjski — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Valur Zrinjski

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Valur

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Zrinjski

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Valur ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Zrinjski
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
25.00
42.02
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
42.02
25.00
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Valur -1.32 Efficiency Index
vs
Zrinjski +1.32 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Valur
Zrinjski
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Valur ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Zrinjski
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Valur Zrinjski
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Valur Zrinjski
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Valur
Zrinjski
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Valur
vs
Zrinjski
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Valur Zrinjski
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Valur 0.26
Zrinjski 0.25
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Valur Zrinjski
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Valur 0.00
Zrinjski 0.03
Valur
Zrinjski
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ZRI had peak pressure around 56'.
  • VAL started the game with stronger pressure.
VAL Pressure ZRI Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ZRI reached the top pressure at 56' (65.44).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Origovöllurinn
Capacity
1500
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Amine Kourgheli
Yuri Khomchenko
Viktor Getikov
Anton Lashuk

Statistics

Possession
VAL
40%
ZRI
60%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
7 Shots 11
35 Dangerous attacks 79
43 Possession 57
2 Corners 12
8 Free kicks 8
2 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

72 Ball Safe 64
7 Goal Attempts 18
5 Substitutions 5
10 Throwins 19

Attacking

64 Attacks 102

Discipline

2 Offsides 4
13 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Amine Kourgheli

Starting XI ▼

1
Frederik Schram
Frederik Schram Goalkeeper
6.5
15
Hólmar Örn Eyjólfsson
Hólmar Örn Eyjólfsson (C) Defender
6.5
24
Myles Veldman
Myles Veldman Defender
6.5
8
Jónatan Ingi Jónsson
Jónatan Ingi Jónsson Midfielder
6.61
12
Tryggvi Hrafn Haraldsson
Tryggvi Hrafn Haraldsson Midfielder
6.69
14
Albin Skoglund
Albin Skoglund Midfielder
6.5
26
Emil Nönnu Sigurbjörnsson
Emil Nönnu Sigurbjörnsson
Midfielder87'
17
Lúkas Logi Heimisson
Lúkas Logi Heimisson Midfielder
6.5
4
Markus Nakkim
Markus Nakkim
Defender66'
6.5
22
Birkir Heimisson
Birkir Heimisson Midfielder
6.5
9
Patrick Pedersen
Patrick Pedersen
Attacker66'
6.5
28
Samúel Fridjónsson
Samúel Fridjónsson Midfielder
6.5
29
Shkelzen Veseli
Shkelzen Veseli Midfielder
6.45
6
Bjarni Mark Antonsson Duffield
Bjarni Mark Antonsson Duffield
Midfielder66'
6.5
19
Dagur Orri Gardarson
Dagur Orri Gardarson Attacker
6.5
21
Jakob Pálsson
Jakob Pálsson
Defender66'
6.49
Referee : Amine Kourgheli

Starting XI ▼

31
Zvonimir Subaric
Zvonimir Subaric Goalkeeper
6.12
4
Hrvoje Barisic
Hrvoje Barisic Defender
6.26
15
Karlo Stapic
Karlo Stapic Defender
6.26
19
Marko Vranjkovic
Marko Vranjkovic Defender
6.26
21
Viktor Grbic
Viktor Grbic
Defender69'
6.5
37
Darick Kobie Morris
Darick Kobie Morris Defender
6.26
10
Mario Cuic
Mario Cuic Midfielder
6.37
17
Antonio Ilic
Antonio Ilic Midfielder
6.37
77
Karlo Abramovic
Karlo Abramovic
Midfielder69'
6.5
20
Antonio Ivancic
Antonio Ivancic Midfielder
6.37
22
Adi Nalic
Adi Nalic Midfielder
6.5
8
Ivica Vidovic
Ivica Vidovic
Midfielder56'
6.37
25
Mario Cuze
Mario Cuze Midfielder
6.37
14
Matej Sakota
Matej Sakota
Midfielder84'
6.5
99
Nemanja Bilbija
Nemanja Bilbija (C) Attacker
6.46
11
Tomi Juric
Tomi Juric
Attacker84'
6.5

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Emil Nönnu Sigurbjörnsson → Albin Skoglund
10th Substitution
87'
84'
Event
Tomi Juric → Nemanja Bilbija 
8th Substitution
84'
Event
Matej Sakota → Mario Cuze
9th Substitution
Event
Jakob Pálsson
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
79'
69'
Event
Karlo Abramovic → Antonio Ilic
6th Substitution
69'
Event
Viktor Grbic → Marko Vranjkovic
7th Substitution
Event
Bjarni Mark Antonsson Duffield → Shkelzen Veseli
2nd Substitution
66'
Event
Markus Nakkim → Lúkas Logi Heimisson
3rd Substitution
66'
Event
Jakob Pálsson → Dagur Orri Gardarson
4th Substitution
66'
Event
Patrick Pedersen → Birkir Heimisson
5th Substitution
66'
Event
Tryggvi Hrafn Haraldsson
Field Goal / 1st Goal
64'
56'
Event
Ivica Vidovic → Adi Nalic
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Shkelzen Veseli
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
32'

Match Commentary

89
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
87
Update Update
Emil Nanna Sigurbjörnsson comes on for Albin Skoglund.
84
Update Update
Matej Sakota comes on for Mario Cuze.
84
Update Update
Tomi Juric is on, and Nemanja Bilbija is off.
79
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
72
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
69
Update Update
Viktor Grbic replaces Marko Vranjkovic.
69
Update Update
Karlo Abramovic replaces Antonio Ilic.
66
Update Update
Bjarni Mark Antonsson is on, and Shkelzen Veseli is off.
66
Update Update
Patrick Pedersen is on, and Birkir Heimisson is off.
66
Update Update
Jakob Franz Palsson is on, and Dagur Gardarson is off.
66
Update Update
Markus Nakkim is on, and Lukas Logi Heimisson is off.
65
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Tryggvi Hrafn Haraldsson scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Jonatan Ingi Jonsson.
64
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
63
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
60
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
59
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
56
Update Update
Ivica Vidovic is on, and Adi Nalic is off.
55
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
53
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
32
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
30
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
29
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
29
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
27
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
15
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
9
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off has taken place!

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Valur 1-0 Zrinjski. Structural assessment: Valur exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.