Lugano vs Dukagjini preview
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Stadio di Cornaredo
Thu, 23 Jul - 6:30 PM
2nd Qualifying Round ·
Leg 1 of 2
|
Arvanit Rexhaj 88'
STANDINGS
Loading standings...
Sorry, standings could not be loaded right now.
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Aug 12
CONTEXT
Lugano faced Dukagjini in the first leg of a two-legged knockout tie and recorded a 1-0 home win. The only goal arrived before the interval leaving the halftime score at 1-0. Lugano controlled 72 percent of possession against Dukagjini 28 percent. Expected goals stood at 2.54 for the home side and 0.79 for the visitors producing a differential of 1.75. Dukagjini received one red card while Lugano finished with none. The stronger side claimed the victory and the result proved consistent with the underlying metrics. A notable deviation of 20.2 percent was recorded for Lugano and the efficiency shift remained in line with observed patterns. The red card contributed to second-half adjustments.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: Final score: Lugano 1-0 Dukagjini. Lugano showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
-
Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with performance indicators throughout the match.
-
xG alignment: The final result aligned with the xG differential of 1.75 between the sides.
-
Market alignment: The outcome proved aligned with pre-match projections for the stronger team.
-
xG expectations: Lugano posted 2.54 expected goals while Dukagjini finished with 0.79.
-
Event impact: The red card issued to Dukagjini shaped adjustments after the opening period.
-
Red card distortion: The away red card introduced clear distortion to second-half patterns of play.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
V. Shimusik
Referee
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
30.4
League Avg
0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
4
League Avg
0
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0.36
League Avg
0
Penalties / Match
Referee
0.36
League Avg
0
S. Kosovets
1st Assistant
•
0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
A. Poluyanov
2nd Assistant
•
0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
D. Dmitriev
4th Official
•
0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
M. Croci-Torti
VS
A. Thaçi
0
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Lugano
79.76%
Draw
14.95%
Dukagjini
5.29%
Movement
Changes since opening
Lugano
-15.93%
Draw
+11.27%
Dukagjini
+4.66%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
68.36
55.33
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Lugano
Dukagjini
Power Score
68.36
55.33
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
293
681
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Lugano
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Dukagjini
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Lugano Dukagjini
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Lugano
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Dukagjini
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Lugano
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Dukagjini
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
40.83
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
50.18
Combined Efficiency Index
Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3
0
3
Lugano
-0.90
Efficiency Index
vs
Dukagjini
+0.90
Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Lugano
Dukagjini
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Lugano
vs
Dukagjini
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
Lugano
Dukagjini
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
10%
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.26
vs
-0.38
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
Lugano
Dukagjini
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
48%
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.38
vs
-0.26
Lugano
Dukagjini
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
–
Lugano
vs
Dukagjini
Attack After Winning
Possession transition → offence
Lugano
Dukagjini
Goals per Match
Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Shots per Match
Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Dangerous Attacks
Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match.
↑ better
—
Transition Efficiency Index
Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition.
Higher = stronger on the counter
Lugano
0.22
Dukagjini
0.29
Defence After Losing
Possession loss → defensive exposure
Lugano
Dukagjini
Goals Conceded
Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Shots Conceded
Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded
Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match.
↓ better
—
Vulnerability Index
Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks.
Lower = better transition defence
Lugano
0.00
Dukagjini
0.01
Lugano
Dukagjini
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- LUGA had peak pressure around 53'.
- LUGA started the game with stronger pressure.
LUGA Pressure
Dukagjini Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index:
LUGA reached the top pressure at 53' (100.00).
STARTING XI
Match Formation
3-4-2-1
Match Formation
4-4-2
1 E. Lekaj
44 T. Bardhoku
14 E. Sinani
5 (C) E. Basriu
Altin Merlaku
69'
10 A. Merlaku
Kushtrim Gashi
81'
8 K. Gashi
47 D. Isufi
17 M. Pefqeli
General Information
Date & Time
Jul 23, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Stadio di Cornaredo
Capacity
6390
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Viktor Shimusik
Sergey Kosovets
Anton Poluyanov
Dmitri Dmitriev
Next Match
Lugano
vs
Vaduz
League: Super League
Kickoff: Sun, 26 Jul - 2:30 PM
Venue: Stadio di Cornaredo
Dukagjini
vs
Lugano
League: Europa Conference League
Kickoff: Wed, 29 Jul - 2:30 PM
Venue: Stadiumi 18 Qershori
Statistics
Possession
LUGA
70%
Dukagjini
30%
Top Statistics
1
Goals
0
7
Big Chances Created
0
11
Shots
7
108
Dangerous attacks
41
72
Possession
28
7
Corners
3
12
Free kicks
17
2
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
1
Match Overview
8
Goal Kicks
10
4
Substitutions
4
12
Throwins
9
1
Hit Woodwork
1
1
Assists
0
10
Dribble Attempts
11
7
Successful Dribbles
3
70
Successful Dribbles Percentage
27
Attacking
109
Attacks
60
6
Big Chances Missed
0
Possession
41
Long Passes
43
622
Passes
242
565
Successful Passes
179
91
Successful Passes Percentage
74
34
Successful Long Passes
16
83
Successful Long Passes Percentage
37
Defensive
3
Saves
4
19
Tackles
6
6
Interceptions
12
Build-up
35
Total Crosses
9
9
Accurate Crosses
1
Discipline
5
Offsides
0
17
Fouls
12
Lineup
Referee :
Viktor Shimusik
Manager ▼
M. Croci-Torti
Coach
Starting XI ▼
Substitutes ▼
28
Felix Gebhardt
Goalkeeper
39
Ahmadou Ndiaye
Goalkeeper
4
Damian Kelvin
Defender
23
Gjan Ajdin
Midfielder
32
Nicolò Puddu
Midfielder
22
Beckham Castro
Attacker
Referee :
Viktor Shimusik
Manager ▼
A. Thaçi
Coach
Starting XI ▼
Substitutes ▼
16
Kenan Haxhihamza
Goalkeeper
2
Denis Hyseni
Defender
3
Melos Zenunaj
Defender
33
Luan
Defender
6
Arvanit Rexhaj
Midfielder
27
Valentin Hoti
Midfielder
66
Engjëll Sylejmani
Midfielder
9
Kron Thaci
Attacker
88
Erjon Krasniqi
Attacker
98
Meris Maliqi
Attacker
Events
2ND-HALF
8th Substitution
89'
89'
7th Substitution
88'
Arvanit Rexhaj
Foul / 1st Redcard
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
84'
81'
Arvanit Rexhaj → Kushtrim Gashi
6th Substitution
4th Substitution
80'
5th Substitution
80'
80'
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
3rd Substitution
69'
69'
Meris Maliqi → Altin Merlaku
2nd Substitution
49'
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
46'
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
31'
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
21'
CONCLUSION
Lugano maintained control after the early goal and the halftime advantage of 1-0. Possession dominance and the xG edge supported their position despite the numerical advantage created by the red card. Dukagjini struggled to generate clear opportunities once reduced to ten players. The single goal proved sufficient for the home side to claim the narrow victory in leg one. Second-half adjustments reflected the impact of the dismissal without further scoring. The data showed consistency between expected metrics and the observed result. Lugano now holds a lead heading into the return fixture.
Match Commentary