Rijeka vs Derry City preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Stadion HNK Rijeka Thu, 23 Jul - 6:45 PM
Europa Conference League
RijekaRIJ
1 0
Derry CityDER
Full Time Thu, 23 Jul 6:45 PM
2nd Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
Toni Fruk - 52'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Rijeka 1–0 Derry City. The result saw Rijeka take the points. Rijeka showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 71%–29%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Rijeka 1-0 Derry City. Rijeka showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
J. Munuera Montero
J. Munuera Montero
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
A. Rodríguez Moreno
A. Rodríguez Moreno
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Martínez Moreno
A. Martínez Moreno
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Quintero González
A. Quintero González
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Rijeka M. Kek
M. Kek
VS
Derry City T. Lynch
T. Lynch
1.75
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
1.75 i
Last 6 Opponents
Strasbourg Rank: 80 D
Strasbourg Rank: 80 L
Omonia Nicosia Rank: W
Omonia Nicosia Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Rijeka
77.38%
Draw
15.88%
Away Derry City
6.74%

Movement

Changes since opening
Rijeka
-19.61%
Draw
+13.51%
Derry City
+6.1%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
28.56
50
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Rijeka
Derry City
Power Score
28.56
50
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Rijeka — Opponent-weighted form score
Derry City — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Rijeka Derry City

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Rijeka

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Derry City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Rijeka ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Derry City
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
29.51
15.86
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
15.86
29.51
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Rijeka +1.28 Efficiency Index
vs
Derry City -1.28 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Rijeka
Derry City
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Rijeka ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Derry City
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Rijeka Derry City
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Rijeka Derry City
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Rijeka
Derry City
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Rijeka
vs
Derry City
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Rijeka Derry City
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Rijeka 0.16
Derry City 0.09
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Rijeka Derry City
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Rijeka 0.00
Derry City 0.01
Rijeka
Derry City
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • RIJ had peak pressure around 19'.
  • RIJ started the game with stronger pressure.
RIJ Pressure DER Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: RIJ reached the top pressure at 19' (91.58).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 23, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Stadion HNK Rijeka
Capacity
8279
Attendance
5843
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
José Luis Munuera Montero
Alfredo Rodríguez Moreno
Antonio Ramón Martínez Moreno
Alejandro Quintero González

Statistics

Possession
RIJ
67%
DER
33%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
13 Shots 2
99 Dangerous attacks 32
71 Possession 29
13 Corners 4
3 Free kicks 14
2 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

94 Ball Safe 68
10 Goal Attempts 2
3 Substitutions 5
19 Throwins 14
0 Injuries 3

Attacking

152 Attacks 72

Discipline

2 Offsides 0
13 Fouls 3

Lineup

Referee : José Luis Munuera Montero

Starting XI ▼

99
Aleksa Todorovic
Aleksa Todorovic Goalkeeper
6.5
22
Ante Orec
Ante Orec Defender
6.49
34
Mladen Devetak
Mladen Devetak Defender
6.5
45
Ante Majstorovic
Ante Majstorovic (C) Defender
6.5
4
Niko Jankovic
Niko Jankovic Midfielder
6.5
5
Alfonso Barco
Alfonso Barco Midfielder
6.5
6
Branko Pavic
Branko Pavic Midfielder
6.61
10
Toni Fruk
Toni Fruk Midfielder
6.69
23
Justas Lasickas
Justas Lasickas
Defender90+1'
14
Amer Gojak
Amer Gojak Midfielder
6.5
11
Gabriel Rukavina
Gabriel Rukavina
Midfielder80'
6.5
26
Tiago Dantas
Tiago Dantas Midfielder
6.5
18
Daniel Adu-Adjei
Daniel Adu-Adjei Attacker
6.46
77
Ante Matej Juric
Ante Matej Juric
Attacker70'
6.5
Referee : José Luis Munuera Montero

Starting XI ▼

1
Brian Maher
Brian Maher Goalkeeper
6.12
3
Patrick McClean
Patrick McClean Defender
6.26
4
Jamie Stott
Jamie Stott Defender
6.26
23
Cameron Dummigan
Cameron Dummigan
Defender62'
6.5
24
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster Defender
6.26
22
Conor Barr
Conor Barr
Defender75'
6.5
2
Barry Cotter
Barry Cotter Midfielder
6.37
7
Michael Duffy
Michael Duffy (C) Midfielder
6.37
14
Ellis Chapman
Ellis Chapman Midfielder
6.37
17
Nick Twisk
Nick Twisk Midfielder
6.37
8
Adam O'Reilly
Adam O'Reilly
Midfielder62'
6.5
19
Brandon Fleming
Brandon Fleming Midfielder
6.37
28
James Olayinka
James Olayinka Midfielder
6.37
12
Darragh Burns
Darragh Burns
Midfielder80'
6.5
27
Liam Boyce
Liam Boyce Attacker
6.46
15
James Clarke
James Clarke
Midfielder62'
6.5

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Justas Lasickas → Toni Fruk
8th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Gabriel Rukavina → Amer Gojak
7th Substitution
80'
80'
Event
Darragh Burns → James Olayinka
6th Substitution
75'
Event
Conor Barr → Brooklyn Lyons-Foster
5th Substitution
Event
Ante Matej Juric → Daniel Adu-Adjei
4th Substitution
70'
62'
Event
James Clarke → Liam Boyce
1st Substitution
62'
Event
Cameron Dummigan → Jamie Stott
2nd Substitution
62'
Event
Adam O'Reilly → Nick Twisk
3rd Substitution
Event
Daniel Adu-Adjei
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
59'
Event
Toni Fruk
Field Goal / 1st Goal
52'
1ST-HALF
Event
Ante Orec
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
7'

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Substitution Substitution
Justas Lasickas is substituted off for Toni Fruk.
88
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
86
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
80
Update Update
Darragh Burns is on, and James Olayinka is off.
80
Update Update
Gabrijel Rukavina is on, and Amer Gojak is off.
76
Update Update
Conor Barr is on, and Brooklyn Lyons Foster is off.
75
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
74
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
72
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
70
Update Update
Ante Matej Juric is on, and Daniel Adu Adjei is off.
63
Update Update
James Clarke replaces Liam Boyce.
62
Update Update
Cameron Dummigan replaces Jamie Stott.
62
Update Update
Cameron Dummigan replaces Jamie Stott.
62
Substitution Substitution
Adam O'Reilly is substituted off for Nick Twisk.
62
Update Update
James Clarke replaces Liam Boyce.
60
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Daniel Adu Adjei receives a yellow card.
59
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
52
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-0.
47
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
41
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
35
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
29
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
19
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
18
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
18
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
14
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
7
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Ante Orec.
6
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
6
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Jose Munuera Montero.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Rijeka 1-0 Derry City. Structural assessment: Rijeka exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.