Varaždin vs Jablonec preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Stadion Anđelko Herjavec Thu, 23 Jul - 6:00 PM
Europa Conference League
VaraždinNKV
3 2
JablonecJAB
Full Time Thu, 23 Jul 6:00 PM
2nd Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
Iuri Tavares - 24'
Ivan Mamut - 68'
Luka Mamic - 82'
Goal
|
Goal

CONTEXT

Varaždin hosted Jablonec in the first leg of a two-legged knockout tie and secured a 3-2 home victory. The sides were level at 1-1 after the opening period. Varaždin held 55 percent possession while Jablonec managed 45 percent. No red cards were issued during the contest. The stronger team according to pre-match indicators emerged as the winner. A significant deviation of 64.4 percent was recorded for Varaždin relative to earlier projections. The efficiency shift remained in line with observed patterns and the result diverged from market alignment. This outcome sets the aggregate for the return fixture without any disciplinary distortion affecting play.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Varaždin recorded a significant 64.4 percent deviation from pre-match projections.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with observed patterns for both sides.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was unavailable for any alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: The final result was not aligned with market expectations.
  • xG expectations: Expected goals expectations could not be evaluated due to missing metrics.
  • Event impact: The 3-2 outcome in leg one shapes the aggregate entering the return fixture.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred and therefore no disciplinary distortion took place.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Marchetti
M. Marchetti
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
G. Perrotti
G. Perrotti
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
D. Palermo
D. Palermo
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
L. Marinelli
L. Marinelli
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Varaždin N. Šafarić
N. Šafarić
VS
Jablonec L. Kozel
L. Kozel
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Varaždin
35.59%
Draw
26.86%
Away Jablonec
37.55%

Movement

Changes since opening
Varaždin
-60.05%
Draw
+23.14%
Jablonec
+36.91%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
69.43
63.83
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Varaždin
Jablonec
Power Score
69.43
63.83
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
257
419

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Varaždin — Opponent-weighted form score
Jablonec — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Varaždin Jablonec

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Varaždin

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Jablonec

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Varaždin ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Jablonec
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
23.64
35.44
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
35.44
23.64
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Varaždin -1.11 Efficiency Index
vs
Jablonec +1.11 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Varaždin
Jablonec
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Varaždin ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Jablonec
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Varaždin Jablonec
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Varaždin Jablonec
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Varaždin
Jablonec
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Varaždin
vs
Jablonec
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Varaždin Jablonec
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Varaždin 0.28
Jablonec 0.36
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Varaždin Jablonec
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Varaždin 0.05
Jablonec 0.08
Varaždin
Jablonec
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • JAB had peak pressure around 58'.
  • JAB started the game with stronger pressure.
NKV Pressure JAB Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: JAB reached the top pressure at 58' (61.68).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 23, 2026, 06:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Stadion Anđelko Herjavec
Capacity
10800
Attendance
3580
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Matteo Marchetti
Giuseppe Perrotti
Domenico Palermo
Livio Marinelli

Statistics

Possession
NKV
52%
JAB
48%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 2
6 Shots 9
40 Dangerous attacks 39
55 Possession 45
1 Corners 4
16 Free kicks 13
4 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

92 Ball Safe 76
9 Goal Attempts 10
5 Substitutions 5
15 Throwins 23

Attacking

115 Attacks 96

Discipline

2 Offsides 2
12 Fouls 16

Lineup

Referee : Matteo Marchetti

Starting XI ▼

33
Josip Silic
Josip Silic Goalkeeper
5.88
4
Luka Skaricic
Luka Skaricic Defender
6.04
5
Sven Lesjak
Sven Lesjak
Defender61'
6.5
14
Roberto Puncec
Roberto Puncec (C) Defender
6.05
23
Frane Maglica
Frane Maglica Defender
6.16
3
Elvir Durakovic
Elvir Durakovic Midfielder
6.37
16
Novak Tepsic
Novak Tepsic
Defender37'
6.26
8
Tomislav Duvnjak
Tomislav Duvnjak Midfielder
6.27
24
Mario Marina
Mario Marina
Midfielder87'
10
Aleksa Latkovic
Aleksa Latkovic Midfielder
6.23
7
Matej Vuk
Matej Vuk
Midfielder61'
6.5
22
Luka Mamic
Luka Mamic Midfielder
6.47
38
Iuri Tavares
Iuri Tavares Midfielder
6.47
21
Ivan Posavec
Ivan Posavec
Midfielder87'
17
Ivan Mamut
Ivan Mamut Attacker
6.75
28
Ivan Canjuga
Ivan Canjuga Attacker
6.74
Referee : Matteo Marchetti

Starting XI ▼

1
Jan Hanus
Jan Hanus Goalkeeper
5.68
4
Nemanja Tekijaski
Nemanja Tekijaski (C) Defender
6.06
18
Martin Cedidla
Martin Cedidla Defender
6.06
57
Filip Novak
Filip Novak Defender
5.99
6
Nelson Okeke
Nelson Okeke Midfielder
6.18
7
Vakhtang Chanturishvili
Vakhtang Chanturishvili Midfielder
6.13
14
Daniel Soucek
Daniel Soucek
Defender90'
8
Filip Zorvan
Filip Zorvan Midfielder
6.38
25
Sebastian Nebyla
Sebastian Nebyla
Midfielder73'
6.37
13
Richard Sedlacek
Richard Sedlacek Midfielder
6.18
16
Hugo Ahl
Hugo Ahl Midfielder
6.37
9
Antonin Rusek
Antonin Rusek
Attacker46'
6.43
23
Eduard Sobol
Eduard Sobol Midfielder
6.18
20
Jiri Slama
Jiri Slama
Defender83'
6.5
44
Lamin Jawo
Lamin Jawo Attacker
6.43
19
Jan Chramosta
Jan Chramosta
Attacker73'
6.46

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Ivan Mamut
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+3'
Event
Josip Silic
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
90+1'
90'
Event
Daniel Soucek → Vakhtang Chanturishvili
10th Substitution
Event
Mario Marina → Tomislav Duvnjak
8th Substitution
87'
Event
Ivan Posavec → Iuri Tavares
9th Substitution
87'
83'
Event
Jiri Slama → Eduard Sobol
7th Substitution
Event
Luka Mamic
Field Goal / 5th Goal
82'
79'
Event
Vakhtang Chanturishvili
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
73'
Event
Jan Chramosta → Lamin Jawo
5th Substitution
73'
Event
Sebastian Nebyla → Filip Zorvan
6th Substitution
Event
Ivan Mamut
Field Goal / 4th Goal
68'
Event
Sven Lesjak → Luka Skaricic
3rd Substitution
61'
Event
Matej Vuk → Aleksa Latkovic
4th Substitution
61'
56'
Event
Nemanja Tekijaski
Field Goal / 3rd Goal
46'
Event
Antonin Rusek → Hugo Ahl
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Novak Tepsic → Elvir Durakovic
1st Substitution
37'
27'
Event
Martin Cedidla
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
Event
Iuri Tavares
Field Goal / 1st Goal
24'
Event
Luka Skaricic
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
15'
Event
Aleksa Latkovic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
5'

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Ivan Mamut.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Josip Silic.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Josip Silic.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Ivan Posavec comes on for Iuri Tavares.
87
Substitution Substitution
Mario Marina is substituted for Tomislav Duvnjak.
83
Update Update
Jiri Slama comes on for Eduard Sobol.
82
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 3-2.
79
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Vakhtang Chanturishvili.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Sebastian Nebyla comes on for Filip Zorvan.
73
Update Update
On, Jan Chramosta replaces Lamin Jawo.
68
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 2-2.
66
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
64
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
62
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
61
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
61
Update Update
Sven Lesjak comes on for Luka Skaricic.
56
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Nemanja Tekijaski scores to make it 1-2, assisted by Filip Novak.
56
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
46
Update Update
Antonin Rusek is on, and Hugo Ahl is off.
37
Update Update
Novak Tepsic comes on for Elvir Durakovic.
27
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Martin Cedidla scores, bringing the match to 1-1.
24
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Iuri Tavares scores to make it 1-0.
19
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
15
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Luka Skaricic.
5
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Aleksa Latkovic.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Matteo Marchetti.

CONCLUSION

Varaždin claimed a narrow 3-2 win in the opening leg after sharing a 1-1 interval with Jablonec. Possession favored the home side at 55 percent to 45 percent without any red cards altering the flow. The significant deviation from projections highlighted an unexpected performance level from the stronger team. Efficiency stayed consistent with prior trends while market alignment did not hold. With xG figures absent the assessment relied on observed events and the result now positions the tie for the second leg. Both teams will adjust approaches ahead of the return match to influence the overall aggregate.