Žilina vs Katowice preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Štadión Pod Dubňom Thu, 23 Jul - 6:30 PM
Europa Conference League
ŽilinaZILI
2 1
KatowiceKAT
Full Time Thu, 23 Jul 6:30 PM
2nd Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
Miroslav Kacer  - 29' (P)
Goal
|
Goal

CONTEXT

Žilina hosted Katowice in the first leg of a two-legged knockout tie. The match concluded with a 2-1 victory for the home side after both teams scored once in the opening period to reach a 1-1 halftime score. Possession statistics showed Žilina at 44 percent and Katowice at 56 percent. The designated stronger team Žilina managed to overcome the possession disadvantage. Data indicated a significant deviation level of 66.3 percent associated with Žilina. Efficiency metrics remained in line with observed patterns. Absence of any red cards meant no distortion from disciplinary actions occurred. The outcome leaves the tie open for the second leg.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Žilina recorded a significant deviation of 66.3 percent in the match outcome.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match patterns for both teams.
  • xG alignment: No xG data was available to determine alignment with the final result.
  • Market alignment: The observed result did not align with market expectations according to the data.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be assessed due to null values for both sides.
  • Event impact: The 2-1 victory in leg one gives Žilina an advantage for the second leg.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were issued resulting in zero distortion to the match flow.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
S. Wolfensberger
S. Wolfensberger
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
G. Maire
G. Maire
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
C. dos Santos
C. dos Santos
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
J. Mandach
J. Mandach
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Žilina P. Stano
P. Stano
VS
Katowice R. Górak
R. Górak
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Žilina
33.67%
Draw
26.91%
Away Katowice
39.42%

Movement

Changes since opening
Žilina
-60.63%
Draw
+21.85%
Katowice
+38.78%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
72.79
66.83
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Žilina
Katowice
Power Score
72.79
66.83
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
181
331

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Žilina — Opponent-weighted form score
Katowice — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Žilina Katowice

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Žilina

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Katowice

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Žilina ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Katowice
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
29.89
10.71
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
10.71
29.89
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Žilina +1.80 Efficiency Index
vs
Katowice -1.80 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Žilina
Katowice
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Žilina ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Katowice
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Žilina Katowice
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Žilina Katowice
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Žilina
Katowice
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Žilina
vs
Katowice
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Žilina Katowice
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Žilina 0.26
Katowice 0.10
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Žilina Katowice
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Žilina 0.03
Katowice 0.05
Žilina
Katowice
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • KAT had peak pressure around 67'.
  • ZILI started the game with stronger pressure.
ZILI Pressure KAT Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: KAT reached the top pressure at 67' (70.25).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 23, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Štadión Pod Dubňom
Capacity
11258
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Sven Wolfensberger
Guillaume Maire
Claudio dos Santos
Johannes von Mandach

Statistics

Possession
ZILI
50%
KAT
50%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
8 Shots 1
43 Dangerous attacks 40
44 Possession 56
1 Corners 4
12 Free kicks 17
5 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

60 Ball Safe 63
1 Penalties 0
8 Goal Attempts 4
5 Substitutions 5
19 Throwins 19

Attacking

78 Attacks 84

Discipline

0 Offsides 1
20 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Sven Wolfensberger

Starting XI ▼

1
Jakub Badzgon
Jakub Badzgon Goalkeeper
6.12
17
Jan Minarik
Jan Minarik Defender
6.25
21
Timotej Hranica
Timotej Hranica Defender
6.45
28
Aleksandre Narimanidze
Aleksandre Narimanidze Defender
6.26
33
Tobias Paliscak
Tobias Paliscak Defender
6.26
7
Frantisek Kosa
Frantisek Kosa Midfielder
6.48
24
Samuel Datko
Samuel Datko
Midfielder82'
6.5
11
Fabian Bzdyl
Fabian Bzdyl Midfielder
6.37
10
Andrei Florea
Andrei Florea
Midfielder82'
6.45
20
Krisztian Bari
Krisztian Bari Midfielder
6.33
66
Miroslav Kacer
Miroslav Kacer (C) Midfielder
6.41
6
Xavier Adang
Xavier Adang
Midfielder75'
6.5
16
Patrik Ilko
Patrik Ilko Attacker
6.46
23
Michal Fasko
Michal Fasko
Attacker67'
6.5
95
Marko Roginic
Marko Roginic Attacker
6.42
34
Lukas Prokop
Lukas Prokop
Attacker75'
6.5
Referee : Sven Wolfensberger

Starting XI ▼

87
Gabriel Kobylak
Gabriel Kobylak Goalkeeper
5.88
4
Arkadiusz Jędrych
Arkadiusz Jędrych (C) Defender
6.04
6
Lukas Klemenz
Lukas Klemenz Defender
6.24
30
Alan Czerwinski
Alan Czerwinski Defender
6.04
5
Jesse Bosch
Jesse Bosch Midfielder
6.27
68
Bartosz Wolski
Bartosz Wolski
Midfielder73'
6.5
8
Borja Galán
Borja Galán Midfielder
6.27
10
Marcel Wedrychowski
Marcel Wedrychowski Midfielder
6.27
15
Eman Markovic
Eman Markovic
Attacker58'
6.46
22
Sebastian Milewski
Sebastian Milewski Midfielder
6.27
19
Kacper Lukasiak
Kacper Lukasiak
Midfielder58'
6.5
23
Marcin Wasielewski
Marcin Wasielewski Midfielder
6.27
17
Ilya Shkurin
Ilya Shkurin Attacker
6.43
99
Adam Zrelak
Adam Zrelak
Attacker58'
6.5
27
Bartosz Nowak
Bartosz Nowak Attacker
6.51
31
Szymon Bartlewicz
Szymon Bartlewicz
Midfielder84'
6.5

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Andrei Florea
Argument / 8th Yellowcard
90+4'
90+4'
Event
Alan Czerwinski
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
Event
Krisztian Bari
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
90'
84'
Event
Szymon Bartlewicz → Bartosz Nowak
10th Substitution
Event
Samuel Datko → Frantisek Kosa
8th Substitution
82'
Event
Andrei Florea → Fabian Bzdyl
9th Substitution
82'
Event
Xavier Adang → Miroslav Kacer 
6th Substitution
75'
Event
Lukas Prokop → Marko Roginic
7th Substitution
75'
73'
Event
Bartosz Wolski → Jesse Bosch
5th Substitution
Event
Michal Fasko → Patrik Ilko
4th Substitution
67'
Event
Jakub Badzgon
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
64'
64'
Event
Arkadiusz Jędrych 
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Pavol Stano
Argument / 9th Yellowcard
61'
59'
Event
Eman Markovic
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
58'
Event
Kacper Lukasiak → Sebastian Milewski
1st Substitution
58'
Event
Eman Markovic → Marcel Wedrychowski
2nd Substitution
58'
Event
Adam Zrelak → Ilya Shkurin
3rd Substitution
Event
Timotej Hranica
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
47'
1ST-HALF
Event
Jan Minarik
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
42'
Event
Miroslav Kacer 
Penalty / 1st Penalty
29'
Event
Marko Roginic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
22'
6'
Event
Lukas Klemenz
Field Goal / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Andrei Florea.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Kristian Bari.
84
Update Update
Szymon Bartlewicz comes on for Bartosz Nowak.
82
Update Update
Samuel Datko is on, and Frantisek Kosa is off.
82
Update Update
Andrei Florea comes on for Fabian Bzdyl.
75
Update Update
Lukas Prokop replaces Marko Roginic.
75
Update Update
Xavier Adang comes on for Miroslav Kacer.
73
Update Update
Bartosz Wolski comes on for Jesse Bosch.
67
Update Update
On Michal Fasko, off Patrik Ilko.
65
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
65
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Arkadiusz Jedrych.
65
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown.
65
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
63
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
59
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Eman Markovic receives a yellow card.
58
Update Update
Adam Zrelak is on, and Ilia Shkurin is off.
58
Update Update
Kacper Lukasiak is on, and Sebastian Milewski is off.
58
Update Update
Eman Markovic comes on for Marcel Wedrychowski.
47
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Timotej Hranica scores, making it 2-1.
42
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Jan Minarik.
29
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Miroslav Kacer scores, making it 1-1.
29
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-1.
23
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card.
14
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
6
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Lukas Klemenz scores, making it 1-0.
6
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
3
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Sven Wolfensberger.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Žilina 2-1 Katowice. Structural assessment: Žilina exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.