Flora vs The New Saints preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Sportland Arena Thu, 23 Jul - 4:00 PM
Europa Conference League
FloraFLOR2
1 0
The New SaintsTNS
Full Time Thu, 23 Jul 4:00 PM
2nd Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Flora hosted The New Saints in the first leg of their two-legged tie and emerged victorious with a 1-0 scoreline. The home side took the lead in the first half and maintained their advantage throughout the second period despite The New Saints being considered the stronger team beforehand. Flora controlled 57 percent of the possession compared to their opponents 43 percent. The match saw no red cards issued to either side. This result represents a notable upset given the pre-match assessments. The single goal scored early on set the tone for a defensive battle that followed. Both teams will now prepare for the return leg with the aggregate score favoring Flora.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Flora 1-0 The New Saints. Flora showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift was in line with the overall performance metrics.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment data was unavailable for this match.
  • Market alignment: The outcome was aligned with market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be assessed due to null values in the data.
  • Event impact: The first-half goal proved decisive in determining the match outcome.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant there was no red card distortion in the game.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
K. Karlsson
K. Karlsson
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
F. Klyver
F. Klyver
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Spahić
A. Spahić
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
N. Karlsson
N. Karlsson
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Flora K. Vassiljev
K. Vassiljev
VS
The New Saints C. Harrison
C. Harrison
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Flora
39.09%
Draw
26.02%
Away The New Saints
34.89%

Movement

Changes since opening
Flora
-55.72%
Draw
+21.46%
The New Saints
+34.26%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
16.67
38.89
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Flora
The New Saints
Power Score
16.67
38.89
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Flora — Opponent-weighted form score
The New Saints — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Flora The New Saints

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Flora

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

The New Saints

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Flora ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy The New Saints
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.05
27.21
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
27.21
31.05
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Flora +0.36 Efficiency Index
vs
The New Saints -0.36 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Flora
The New Saints
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Flora ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy The New Saints
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Flora The New Saints
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Flora The New Saints
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Flora
The New Saints
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Flora
vs
The New Saints
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Flora The New Saints
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Flora 0.19
The New Saints 0.11
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Flora The New Saints
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Flora 0.00
The New Saints 0.01
Flora
The New Saints
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • FLOR2 had peak pressure around 8'.
  • FLOR2 started the game with stronger pressure.
FLOR2 Pressure TNS Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: FLOR2 reached the top pressure at 8' (46.36).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 23, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Sportland Arena
Capacity
14336
Attendance
1257
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Kristoffer Karlsson
Fredrik Klyver
Almira Spahić
Niclas Karlsson

Statistics

Possession
FLOR2
53%
TNS
47%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
11 Shots 3
74 Dangerous attacks 74
57 Possession 43
7 Corners 3
11 Free kicks 12
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

99 Ball Safe 94
10 Goal Attempts 7
3 Substitutions 3
17 Throwins 20
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

156 Attacks 146

Discipline

2 Offsides 0
10 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Kristoffer Karlsson

Starting XI ▼

33
Evert Grünvald
Evert Grünvald Goalkeeper
6.5
3
Airon Kollo
Airon Kollo Defender
6.5
23
Mihhail Kolobov
Mihhail Kolobov Defender
6.5
26
Sander Tovstik
Sander Tovstik Defender
6.5
7
Danil Kuraksin
Danil Kuraksin Midfielder
6.5
67
Ilja Antonov
Ilja Antonov
Midfielder72'
6.5
14
Tony Varjund
Tony Varjund Midfielder
6.5
18
Remo Valdmets
Remo Valdmets Midfielder
6.69
17
Taaniel Usta
Taaniel Usta
Attacker64'
6.5
20
Sergei Zenjov
Sergei Zenjov Midfielder
6.61
9
Rauno Alliku
Rauno Alliku
Midfielder69'
6.5
29
Sander Alamaa
Sander Alamaa Midfielder
6.5
32
Vladislav Kreida
Vladislav Kreida Midfielder
6.5
11
Rauno Sappinen
Rauno Sappinen (C) Attacker
6.5
Referee : Kristoffer Karlsson

Starting XI ▼

1
Nathan Shepperd
Nathan Shepperd Goalkeeper
6.12
6
Jack Bodenham
Jack Bodenham Defender
6.26
14
Daniel Williams
Daniel Williams Defender
6.25
16
Dynel Simeu
Dynel Simeu Defender
6.26
22
Danny Davies
Danny Davies Defender
6.26
4
Dominic Corness
Dominic Corness Midfielder
6.37
18
Rory Holden
Rory Holden
Midfielder61'
6.5
8
Ryan Brobbel
Ryan Brobbel Midfielder
6.37
19
Ben Clark
Ben Clark
Midfielder61'
6.5
10
Daniel Redmond
Daniel Redmond (C) Midfielder
6.37
20
Rhys Hughes
Rhys Hughes Midfielder
6.37
21
Leo Smith
Leo Smith Midfielder
6.37
17
Jordan Williams
Jordan Williams Attacker
6.46
15
Eoin Farrell
Eoin Farrell
Midfielder61'
6.5

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
Daniel Williams
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Ilja Antonov → Danil Kuraksin
6th Substitution
72'
Event
Rauno Alliku  → Sergei Zenjov
5th Substitution
69'
Event
Taaniel Usta → Remo Valdmets
4th Substitution
64'
61'
Event
Ben Clark → Ryan Brobbel
1st Substitution
61'
Event
Eoin Farrell → Jordan Williams
2nd Substitution
61'
Event
Rory Holden → Dominic Corness
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Remo Valdmets
Field Goal / 1st Goal
31'

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
74
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
72
Update Update
Ilja Antonov comes on for Danil Kuraksin.
69
Update Update
Rauno Alliku comes on for Sergei Zenjov.
68
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
64
Update Update
Taaniel Usta is on, and Remo Valdmets is off.
61
Update Update
On comes Ben Clark, off goes Ryan Brobbel.
61
Substitution Substitution
Eoin Farrell is substituted for Jordan Williams.
61
Update Update
Rory Holden is on, and Dominic Corness is off.
58
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
55
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
54
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
37
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
32
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-0.
27
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
12
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
8
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
4
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Kristoffer Karlsson.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Flora 1-0 The New Saints. Structural assessment: Flora exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.