Luzern vs Thun preview
2026/2027 Super League, Switzerland
swissporarena
Sat, 25 Jul - 6:30 PM
Round 1 ·
Regular Season
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Aug 12
CONTEXT
Luzern hosted Thun in a match that concluded with a 1-3 final score after a 1-1 halftime level. Thun entered as the stronger side and secured the victory despite Luzern holding 55 percent possession to Thun's 45 percent. Luzern generated 2.78 expected goals while Thun posted 2.41, yet the result diverged from those underlying numbers. No red cards were issued to either side during the contest. A significant deviation occurred in favor of Thun relative to pre-match positioning. The outcome proved inconsistent with expected goal projections even as market alignment held steady. Efficiency metrics remained in line with observed patterns throughout the fixture.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: Thun recorded a significant deviation from pre-match positioning in securing the 1-3 result.
-
Efficiency shift: Efficiency metrics stayed in line with observed patterns for both sides.
-
xG alignment: The 1-3 outcome proved inconsistent with the 2.78 to 2.41 expected goal split.
-
Market alignment: Market alignment remained true despite the result diverging from expected goals.
-
xG expectations: Luzern posted higher expected goals at 2.78 compared to Thun's 2.41.
-
Event impact: No notable events altered the flow beyond standard play in the 1-3 match.
-
Red card distortion: No red cards were issued, resulting in zero distortion from dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
N. Gianforte
Referee
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
30.4
League Avg
0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
4
League Avg
0
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0.36
League Avg
0
Penalties / Match
Referee
0.36
League Avg
0
J. Erni
1st Assistant
•
0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
L. Hartmann
2nd Assistant
•
0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
M. Drmic
4th Official
•
0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
J. Portmann
VS
G. Privitelli
1.82
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
1.78
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Winterthur
Rank: 47
W
Zürich
Rank: 53
W
Servette
Rank: 66
D
Lausanne Sport
Rank: 56
W
Grasshopper
Rank: 53
W
St. Gallen
Rank: 69
D
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
St. Gallen
Rank: 69
D
Young Boys
Rank: 67
L
Sion
Rank: 68
L
Basel
Rank: 64
L
Lugano
Rank: 69
L
Basel
Rank: 64
W
0
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 3
3
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
62.8
66.33
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Luzern
Thun
Power Score
62.8
66.33
League Position
12
1
Global Rank
475
364
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Luzern
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Thun
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Luzern Thun
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Luzern
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Thun
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Luzern
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Thun
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
44.73
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
51.56
Combined Efficiency Index
Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3
0
3
Luzern
-0.69
Efficiency Index
vs
Thun
+0.69
Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Luzern
Thun
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Luzern
vs
Thun
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
Luzern
Thun
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
57%
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-1.59
vs
-1.31
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
Luzern
Thun
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
54%
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-1.31
vs
-1.59
Luzern
Thun
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
–
Luzern
vs
Thun
Attack After Winning
Possession transition → offence
Luzern
Thun
Goals per Match
Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Shots per Match
Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Dangerous Attacks
Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match.
↑ better
—
Transition Efficiency Index
Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition.
Higher = stronger on the counter
Luzern
0.42
Thun
0.48
Defence After Losing
Possession loss → defensive exposure
Luzern
Thun
Goals Conceded
Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Shots Conceded
Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded
Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match.
↓ better
—
Vulnerability Index
Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks.
Lower = better transition defence
Luzern
0.07
Thun
0.02
Luzern
Thun
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- LUZ had peak pressure around 12'.
- LUZ started the game with stronger pressure.
LUZ Pressure
THU Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index:
LUZ reached the top pressure at 12' (73.20).
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Luzern
LUZ
Home
3
matches
Thun
THU
Away
Match Record
0
Wins
3
0
Draws
0
3
Losses
0
Goals
3
Goals Scored
8
8
Goals Conceded
3
-5
Goal Difference
+5
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0
Data last updated: 2026-07-26T00:03:24+00:00
STARTING XI
Match Formation
4-4-2
Match Formation
4-2-2-2
17 A. Balaruban
19 (C) J. Bamert
5 N. Bürgy
37 L. Dähler
21 D. Derbaci
30 N. Maier
11 L. Stewart
33 M. Gutbub
General Information
Date & Time
Jul 25, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Super League, Switzerland · Round 1 · Regular Season
Stadium
swissporarena
Capacity
16800
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Nico Gianforte
Jonas Erni
Leroy Hartmann
Marijan Drmic
Next Match
Luzern
vs
Sion
League: Super League
Kickoff: Sun, 2 Aug - 2:30 PM
Venue: Stade de Tourbillon
Thun
vs
Dinamo Zagreb
League: Champions League
Kickoff: Tue, 28 Jul - 6:00 PM
Venue: Stadion Maksimir
Statistics
Possession
LUZ
53%
THU
47%
Top Statistics
1
Goals
3
4
Big Chances Created
6
10
Shots
10
52
Dangerous attacks
44
55
Possession
45
12
Corners
6
10
Free kicks
13
3
Yellow Cards
1
Match Overview
51
Ball Safe
57
8
Goal Kicks
10
11
Goal Attempts
14
5
Substitutions
5
23
Throwins
22
0
Hit Woodwork
1
0
Assists
3
0
Injuries
1
6
Dribble Attempts
15
3
Successful Dribbles
8
50
Successful Dribbles Percentage
53
Attacking
99
Attacks
81
3
Big Chances Missed
4
Possession
54
Long Passes
47
393
Passes
334
301
Successful Passes
261
77
Successful Passes Percentage
78
18
Key Passes
13
26
Successful Long Passes
17
48
Successful Long Passes Percentage
36
Defensive
4
Saves
3
11
Tackles
8
8
Interceptions
13
Build-up
24
Total Crosses
14
6
Accurate Crosses
7
Discipline
13
Fouls
10
Lineup
Referee :
Nico Gianforte
Manager ▼
J. Portmann
Coach
Starting XI ▼
Substitutes ▼
63
Raphael Radtke
Goalkeeper
3
Jesper Löfgren
Defender
13
Bung Hua Freimann
Defender
28
Ronaldo Dantas
Midfielder
Referee :
Nico Gianforte
Manager ▼
G. Privitelli
Coach
Starting XI ▼
Substitutes ▼
25
Tim Spycher
Goalkeeper
47
Fabio Fehr
Defender
54
Louis Passavant
Defender
80
Simon Lengen
Attacker
Events
2ND-HALF
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
89'
9th Substitution
85'
10th Substitution
85'
84'
Header / 4th Goal
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
83'
80'
8th Substitution
5th Substitution
74'
7th Substitution
74'
74'
6th Substitution
72'
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
4th Substitution
64'
61'
3rd Substitution
60'
1st Substitution
60'
2nd Substitution
51'
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
50'
1ST-HALF
8'
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
2'
CONCLUSION
Thun claimed a 1-3 away victory over Luzern after both teams stood level at 1-1 following the opening period. Although Luzern controlled more possession and created the higher expected goal total, Thun converted opportunities efficiently enough to claim the points. The absence of any red cards kept the contest balanced in terms of personnel throughout the second half. Thun's performance aligned with market expectations even while exceeding the projected outcome based on underlying metrics. Luzern will note the need for greater clinical finishing in future fixtures given their expected goal advantage. Overall the result highlighted Thun's ability to deliver under the stronger team designation on the day.
Match Commentary